XRP Price Prediction: U.S. Government Shutdown Hinders ETF, but Three Catalysts Stimulate Long Positions

The easing of Sino-US trade tensions has driven the price of XRP to rebound and break through $2.5, but the U.S. government's 13-day shutdown delaying the approval of the spot ETF is the biggest resistance. The key to XRP price predictions depends on three major catalysts: dynamics on Capitol Hill, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and Sino-US trade negotiations, with technical analysis indicating that the psychological barrier of $3 is in sight.

XRP Price Prediction Core: Trade War Easing Sparks Relief Rebound

The easing of tensions between the US and China over the weekend sparked a rebound in cryptocurrencies, pushing [XRP]/buy-ripple-xrp( back above $2.5 after the flash crash on October 10. This key turning point in XRP price prediction stemmed from clarifications made by Beijing regarding restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, igniting hopes in the market for both countries to avoid a full-blown trade war.

According to reports from the Kobeishi Letter, China stated that the new rare earth export controls do not prohibit exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be approved. China also expressed its willingness to strengthen dialogue to "better maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain."

President Trump further eased market concerns by posting on social media: "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine! China does not want its country to fall into a great economic depression, and I don't want that either. The United States wants to help China, not hurt it."

) Key Time Points of XRP Price Trend

Before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit opening on October 31, the China-U.S. relationship is in a downgrade mode. President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the summit, and both sides are anticipated to reach a trade agreement. This is an important catalyst event for XRP price predictions.

Recent Price Trend Review:

October 10: XRP briefly dropped to $0.7773 (flash crash)

October 12: Rebound 6.1%, closing at 2.5317 USD

From October 1 to now: a cumulative drop of 11%

Easing trade tensions may provide short-term relief, but the unresolved issue of a U.S. government shutdown remains the most critical resistance factor in XRP price forecasts.

The U.S. Government Shutdown Becomes the Biggest Variable for XRP

The deadlock in the U.S. Senate continued throughout the weekend, extending the U.S. government shutdown deadline to 13 days on Monday, October 13. Crucially, the next Senate vote is unlikely to take place before Tuesday, October 14. A prolonged government shutdown could put pressure on XRP and the overall market.

· Why is the Capitol Hill so important to the XRP price

Since the government shutdown, the SEC has been operating with a streamlined workforce and has delayed the approval of the recently resubmitted XRP spot ETF S-1 filing. The market reacted negatively to the potential latency in institutional capital inflows. Before the flash crash, XRP fell by 1.5% from October 1 to October 9, and despite the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, it has still declined by 11% from October 1 to date.

The betting platform Kalshi predicts that the U.S. government shutdown will last for 33.4 days, close to the 35 days of shutdown time in 2018-2019 (the longest shutdown in U.S. history). If the U.S. government shutdown continues beyond this week, it is likely that the XRP Spot ETF will not receive approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission until November.

The Impact of Government Shutdown on XRP Prices:

ETF Approval Delay: XRP Spot ETF approval may be delayed until November.

Stagflation Concerns: A prolonged standstill may trigger stagflation, testing buyers' demand for risk assets.

GDP Impact: The shutdown from 2018 to 2019 resulted in a 0.4 percentage point decline in the US GDP.

Demand Pressure: A sharp economic slowdown may put pressure on retail and institutional demand for XRP.

On the other hand, if the Senate passes a temporary funding bill in the coming days, XRP price predictions may refocus on the psychological level of $3.

XRP Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels

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(Source: Trading View)

On October 12 (Sunday), XRP rose 6.1% in a single day after increasing 0.45% the previous day, closing at $2.5317. The token outperformed the market (which rose 5.57%). Although it has regained the $2.5 level, the trading price of XRP remains below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bearish market.

)# · XRP Key Technical Levels

Support Level Analysis:

First support: $2.5 (psychological barrier)

Second support: $2.0 (psychological barrier)

Third support: 1.9 USD

Resistance Levels and Technical Indicators:

200 Day EMA: $2.6346 (First Technical Resistance)

50 Day EMA: 2.8577 USD (Second Technical Resistance)

First resistance: 2.7 USD

Second resistance: $3.0 (psychological barrier)

XRP price prediction shows that to start a real bull market, it is necessary to break through the two key technical resistances of the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA.

XRP Scenario Analysis: Bullish vs Bearish

In the upcoming trading days, several key scenarios may affect the recent trend of XRP price predictions.

Bullish Scenario: Heading Towards a $3 XRP Price Prediction

Positive catalysts include:

1. Easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions: Agreement reached at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

2. Government Reopening: Senate Passes Temporary Funding Bill

3. ETF Advancement: BlackRock submitted S-1 documents for iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approved the XRP Spot ETF.

4. Institutional Adoption: Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for financial purposes.

5. Payment platforms adopting: More and more payment platforms are adopting Ripple technology.

6. Regulatory Breakthrough: Ripple obtains a chartered bank license in the United States.

7. Legislative Progress: The Senate passed the market structure bill.

8. Market Share Transfer: SWIFT cedes its global remittance market share to Ripple.

These bullish scenarios could drive XRP to reach $2.7, allowing the bulls to target the psychological level of $3. The XRP price forecast may challenge all-time highs in the most optimistic scenarios.

Bearish Scenario: Risks of XRP Price Forecast Below $2.5

Bearish factors include:

1. ETF plan terminated: BlackRock abandons XRP Spot ETF plan

2. Government shutdown continues: Senate deadlock persists, delaying XRP spot ETF approval.

3. Legislative resistance: Legislators question cryptocurrency-friendly regulations, including the market structure bill.

4. Institutional Indifference: Blue-chip companies do not regard XRP as a financial reserve asset.

5. Regulatory Setback: OCC Delays or Denies Ripple's U.S. Banking Charter

6. Market Competition: SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance market, restricting Ripple's market access.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP below $2.5, putting XRP at risk of the psychological barrier of $2.

XRP Price Prediction Ultimate Question: Can it Recover to 3 USD?

This week may determine whether XRP will rebound to $3 or fall into a new bearish cycle. The key to XRP price prediction lies in the interplay of three major factors:

Decisive Factors:

1. Capitol Dynamics: Duration of Government Shutdown and ETF Approval Timeline

2. The Federal Reserve (FED) policy: October interest rate cut decision and December interest rate cut expectations

3. US-China Trade Negotiations: Results of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit

If the government ends the shutdown, The Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates in October, along with market support for a rate cut in December, XRP may break through 3 dollars. In addition, the launch of the XRP Spot ETF may also drive its price to new highs.

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve (FED) and Capitol Hill—these two factors may determine whether XRP rebounds to $3 or falls back to $2. Given the market's sensitivity to last week's events, traders should closely monitor developments on Capitol Hill, U.S.-China trade, and comments from the Federal Reserve (FED).