Analyst: The probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates next year has dropped to 50%, and whether the easing cycle has ended remains a question.

Jin10 data September 11 news, Adam Button, an analyst at the U.S. financial website investinglive, stated that it is still as difficult to judge whether the European Central Bank's easing cycle has ended as flipping a coin. Before Lagarde made optimistic comments about economic growth, the market priced the probability of interest rate cuts before mid-2026 at about 60%, but it subsequently fell to just below 50%. Currently, the July 2026 meeting is most likely to see interest rate cuts again, with the market pricing the easing magnitude at about 12.2 basis points. The probability of interest rate cuts for the remainder of this year has dropped from 40% before the interest rate decision to 24%. As a result, the euro has risen about 45 points compared to the level before the European Central Bank announced its decision. Initially, the euro had fallen, but after Lagarde adjusted the growth risk assessment from “negative” to “neutral”, the euro quickly rebounded and rose.