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The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in July is 95.3%.
On July 4, Jin10 reported that according to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch”: the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 33%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 64%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3%.