Raoul Pal:全球流动性与 BTC 相关性达 90%,市场处于历史超卖状态

BTC2,35%

Gate News 消息,3 月 8 日,Raoul Pal 在 X 平台发文表示,全球流动性是历史上最重要的宏观因素,自 2012 年以来与 BTC 的相关性为 90%,与 NDX 的相关性为 97%,其年增长率约为 10%,且未出现放缓迹象。其指出,GMI 金融状况领先全球流动性约 6 个月,仍在宽松中;美国整体流动性在停摆期间受到抑制,但该指标领先加密货币约 3 个月,并自三个月前的低点开始加速回升。其表示,商业周期正呈加速趋势,eSLR(银行通过信贷和吸收国债发行来提升流动性的机制)亦在上升并将进一步加速,税收退款进入银行资产负债表,提升信贷创造倾向,从而增加流动性。其认为,美国将进一步降息,提升可支配收入,进而增加风险偏好;CLARITY 法案预计将获通过,推动资金流入;稳定币去年发行量增长 50%,且仍在加速,交易量已达数万亿美元;美国政府对加密货币的支持力度达到历史最高水平。其指出,加密市场依据多数指标显示为历史上最超卖的阶段,每周 DeMark 指标在两周后将提供非常坚实的支撑,每日 DeMark 指标亦呈叠加状态。其表示,风险因素在于油价维持高位的时长,接下来的两周是关键关注期,其预期进一步上行。

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