实际利率飙升压制比特币上涨空间,ETF降温与需求走弱成关键变量

BTC-1,54%

Gate News 消息,2026年3月底,比特币价格维持在约67,400美元附近,周内小幅上涨约2%,但市场供需结构出现松动迹象。在机构资金降温与宏观利率走高的双重影响下,比特币短期上行动能受到明显抑制。

数据显示,现货ETF资金流入趋缓,同时稳定币总量增长停滞,反映新增法币资金进入市场的节奏放慢。与之对应,比特币供给仍保持稳定释放。自2024年减半后,区块奖励降至3.125 BTC,当前每日新增供应约450枚。在需求减弱背景下,市场对新增供给的吸收能力正在下降。

AER(吸收发行比率)指标显示,机构需求强度已从2月的5.3倍大幅回落至1.3倍,进入“被动吸收”区间。这意味着当前需求仅略高于矿工抛压,若缺乏持续资金流入,比特币价格难以形成趋势性上涨。

宏观层面,“实际利率”成为压制市场的重要变量。美国10年期TIPS收益率自2月底以来上升超30个基点,一度触及2.12%,为2025年中以来高位。实际收益率上行提升了无风险资产吸引力,使资金从比特币等无现金流资产中流出。

Michael J. Kramer指出,长期实际利率上升速度快于短端利率,显示市场正在重新定价更紧的金融环境预期。此外,油价持续高位运行,也在收紧整体流动性,对风险资产形成外部压力。

在当前环境下,比特币走势更多依赖流动性改善与利率预期变化。若缺乏降息信号或资金回流,市场或继续维持震荡格局。(CoinDesk)

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