信达期货:能源价格上行约束利率预期,黄金短期承压

Gate News 消息,3 月 22 日,信达期货发布研报指出,当前黄金走势的核心驱动因素在于能源价格上行对利率预期的再约束。随着中东冲突持续,原油价格维持高位运行,布伦特原油期货此前稳定在 100 美元上方,显著抬升市场对通胀黏性的担忧。在此背景下,市场对通胀回落路径的判断趋于谨慎,进而削弱对降息的定价,推动美元阶段性走强,对黄金形成压制。同时,尽管此前就业数据偏弱,但能源推动的通胀预期正在对冲这一利多,使黄金金融属性短期偏向利空。政策层面,市场普遍预期美联储将连续第二次会议维持利率不变,但关键在于利率路径的前瞻指引,尤其是鲍威尔对通胀与地缘冲突影响的评估,将直接影响市场对后续宽松节奏的判断。

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