Gate News 消息，3 月 13 日，过去一日内，一个在特朗普市场表现优异的地址在预测市场 Polymarket 投入 3700 美元，押注新盘口「美国能在四月前护送商船通过霍尔木兹海峡」，开仓均价 31.3¢，现价 33.5¢。
该盘口规则要求在 3 月 31 日前，美国官方明确宣布一项护航行动，或权威媒体一致报道美军已实际护送商船通过霍尔木兹海峡。护航可由海军军舰或被指定伴随/保护的空中力量执行。
3 月 12 日，美国财长贝森特表示，美国海军将「在军事条件允许时」护送船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，该行动可能与国际联盟一起进行。行动前提包括美国需先取得足够的空中优势，并进一步削弱伊朗的导弹能力。贝森特还表示，目前仍有伊朗和部分中国油轮通过海峡，美方判断海峡尚未被全面布雷。
根据该交易者过往交易画像判断，其并非押注事件是否实际发生，存在开仓后在某一时间点止盈、止损的行为。
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