美以聯軍對伊朗發動攻擊致最高領袖哈米尼身亡後，伊朗報復性封鎖荷莫茲海峽。全球每日 2,000 萬桶原油運輸中斷，布蘭特原油單日飆漲 3.7% 至 72.80 美元，分析師警告若封鎖持續，油價將衝破 100 美元。
（前情提要：伊朗總統佩澤希齊揚領3人委員會接管權力，潛在繼任者名單曝光）
（背景補充：傳出以色列對伊朗發動「預防性」軍事攻擊！比特幣瞬跌破6.5萬美元，市場恐慌情緒飆升）
本文目錄
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- 72 美元只是起點？
- 伊朗的底牌
- 台股週一開盤剉咧等？
美國與以色列 28 日對伊朗發動聯合軍事行動，目標包括軍事指揮中心、核設施與高階官員。伊朗紅新月會通報至少 201 人死亡、逾 700 人受傷。而最關鍵的一擊：伊朗最高領袖哈米尼今晨證實在空襲中身亡。
作為報復，伊朗同時發射數十枚彈道飛彈和無人機，攻擊以色列本土及美軍在約旦、科威特、巴林、卡達、伊拉克、沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋的 27 處軍事基地。
然後，伊朗革命衛隊做了市場最怕的那件事：關閉荷莫茲海峽。
根據美國能源資訊署（EIA）的數據，2024 年通過該海峽的原油日均流量為 2,000 萬桶，相當於全球石油液體消費量的 20%。2025 年的數據更顯示，約 1,300 萬桶原油日均經由此海峽運輸，佔全球海運原油流量的 31%。
換句話說，全球近三分之一的海運原油和五分之一的液化天然氣，如今被鎖上了門。
72 美元只是起點？
消息傳出後，布蘭特原油期貨單日飆漲 3%，現收於每桶 72.48 美元。多家投行警告，若沒有出現明顯的降溫訊號，週一開盤油價可能再跳升 10 至 20 美元。
分析師預測：如果衝突在三到五週內受控，油價的風險溢價約 4 至 10 美元，市場可以消化。但如果演變成長期對峙，伊朗持續封鎖海峽，全球最多 20% 的石油供應將被切斷，布蘭特衝向 100 美元幾乎是必然。彭博分析師更指出，若封鎖成功且持久，布蘭特觸及 140 美元並非不可能。
伊朗的底牌
伊朗本身是 OPEC 第四大產油國，今年 1 月日產量略超 300 萬桶。但伊朗對油價的真正威脅從來不是自己的產量，而是它扼住荷莫茲海峽咽喉的能力。
沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋、科威特、伊拉克的原油出口，絕大多數必須經過這條寬僅 33 公里的水道。即便不考慮伊朗本國的出口（其中約 90% 流向中國，日均約 190 萬桶），光是海峽的封鎖就足以讓全球能源市場陷入恐慌。
CNBC 的報導引述分析師的說法：這場衝突的「後果比委內瑞拉大得多」。委內瑞拉的產量中斷影響的是數十萬桶的量級；荷莫茲海峽的封鎖影響的是數千萬桶。兩者不在同一個數量級。
而且 OPEC 的備用產能有限。沙烏地阿拉伯理論上可以增產，但即便全力開動，也無法彌補海峽封鎖造成的缺口，因為增產的油同樣需要從海峽運出去。除非走紅海方向的東西管線，但那條管線的運能遠遠不足。
台股週一開盤剉咧等？
台股加權指數在連假前 2 月 26 日才剛創歷史新高，連續五個交易日刷新紀錄。但 72 小時後，中東的飛彈把這場慶祝派對炸了個粉碎。
多家大型投顧的沙盤推演指出：台股週一開盤輕則跌 300 至 500 點，重則跌 800 至 900 點。凱基投顧的分析最直白：若伊朗持續封鎖荷莫茲海峽、衝突演變為長期戰爭、油價竄升至三位數，「對金融市場的衝擊將難以估計」。
外資是最大的變數。過往地緣政治風險升溫時，外資的第一反應永遠通常是「先撤再說」。法人預估台股可能成外資提款機，尤其是流動性最好的台積電和大型權值股，將首當其衝承受賣壓。
不過，部分法人持相對保守的樂觀。邏輯是：只要戰場不在美國本土，對國際經濟的實質衝擊不致太大；市場可能先震盪兩三天，之後若戰事受控，反而是伺機承接台積電等 AI 概念股的機會。
但關鍵前提是：荷莫茲海峽必須重新開放，油價不能真的站上 100 美元。
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