Bitwise：比特币投资者至少持有3年才能避免亏损，短线交易亏损概率近五成

GateNews

2026-03-01 08:57:01

BTC1,75%

Odaily星球日报讯数字资产管理公司 Bitwise Asset Management 通过分析覆盖 2010 年 7 月 17 日至 2026 年 2 月 11 日的价格数据显示，若投资者持有比特币至少三年，历史上出现亏损的概率仅为 0.70%。持有期限越长，亏损风险越低，若投资者持有比特币 5 年亏损概率降至 0.2%，持有 10 年亏损概率为 0%。相比之下持有周期少于三年的投资者面临更高风险，其中：日内买入者出现浮亏的概率达 47.1%，持有一周为 44.7%，持有一个月为 43.2%，即便持有一年亏损概率仍有 24.3%。Bitwise 指出，当前比特币价格约 65,000 美元，较 2025 年 10 月高点回落约 50%。但三至五年持有群体的实现价格约为 34,780 美元，意味着该区间投资者整体仍处于约 90%的浮盈状态。（Cointelegraph）

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to Disclaimer.