分析：加密社区对伊朗掐断石油供应并冲击市场的担忧可能被夸大

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2026-02-28 15:49:31

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PANews 2月28日消息，据CoinDesk报道，尽管社交媒体上许多人担忧伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡以扰乱石油供应，但一些专家认为这种担忧可能被夸大了。该海峡是全球约20%石油运输的关键通道。有观点认为，若发生直接冲突，油价可能飙升至120至150美元，引发通胀冲击和市场抛售。此次冲突引发加密市场紧张情绪，这是周末传统市场休市期间，投资者唯一可以表达恐惧和风险的市场。然而，部分观察人士指出，完全封锁海峡不符合伊朗利益，甚至在地理上也不可行。经济学家Daniel Lacalle表示，伊朗目前每日产油330万桶，封锁海峡无异于“自断其路”。此外，海峡的航运通道主要位于阿曼水域，而非伊朗水域，因为伊朗一侧水深较浅，不适合大型油轮通行。能源市场专家Anas Alhajji博士称，尽管历经多次战争，霍尔木兹海峡从未被真正封锁过，因为它太宽且受到良好保护，实际上无法被封锁。综合来看，伊朗封锁海峡并切断石油供应的可能性较低。不过，全面战争仍可能引发广泛的风险规避情绪，或将比特币推低至60,000美元的关键支撑位下方。

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