Odaily星球日报讯 10x Research 在 X 平台发文表示，比特币期权到期动态、政治不确定性和仓位集中共同作用，未来几天将决定 6 万美元价格位的支撑或突破。市场未计入尾部事件风险，而是针对基准情景进行仓位布局。理解该格局下的概率、资金流向和激励结构至关重要，因为当 gamma 转为负值且仓位拥挤时，价格变动可能远超基本面驱动。报告重新审视当前政治背景如何推动风险资产盘整，并强调近期重大转变可能带来市场影响。仓位布局、政策不确定性和波动率动态表明需保持耐心和现实主义。报告评估 6 万美元是否应视为尾部风险或日益合理的基准情景。在当前环境下，准备而非预测最为重要，理解概率至关重要。
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