Matrixport：30日内的大幅下跌是否更频繁出现为熊市判断指标

GateNews

2026-02-16 03:52:15

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PANews 2月16日消息，Matrixport 发布每日分析表示，判断比特币是否进入熊市，一个常见观察是：30 日内的大幅下跌是否更频繁地出现。在牛市阶段，30 日内跌超 20% 相对少见；而在熊市阶段，这类下跌更容易反复发生。与此同时，市场动能早在 2025 年年中就已走弱：从 30 日变化率（rate of change，ROC）看，上行峰值持续走低，买盘推动力也在同步减退。经验丰富的加密投资者都明白，熊市是周期中自然且反复出现的一部分，也往往会为下一轮修复与上行创造条件。只是熊市通常不会一路单边下行，即使在更大的下跌趋势中，也常会出现力度可观的阶段性反弹。因此，投资者应保持纪律，并随着市场条件变化，持续寻找更具性价比的阶段性机会。

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