Tom Lee 播客中指出,比特币已经运行了大约 14 年,最早的一批加密原住民——当年只有二十多岁的持有者,如今已经步入成熟阶段,其中很多人已经积累了相当可观的财富。这正在推动比特币持有者结构发生变化,一部分早期持有者开始选择出售手中的比特币。
与此同时,他也提到一个更偏向比特币本身的潜在风险——量子计算。随着量子技术的加速发展,大约三分之一的比特币钱包目前无法升级,这意味着它们在量子计算面前存在脆弱性。
相比之下,传统金融体系可以通过强制用户升级密码和安全标准来应对类似风险,但比特币网络中,部分长期未升级的钱包(例如中本聪相关钱包)带来了结构性的挑战。如果要真正解决这一问题,可能最终需要通过一次比特币分叉来完成。
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