美联储传声筒:美国经济或已实现软着陆,但无人愿轻言胜利

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BlockBeats 消息,2 月 15 日,「美联储传声筒」Nick Timiraos 撰文称,美国经济的各项关键指标正指向同一个积极方向,通胀正在下降,劳动力市场保持坚挺,经济增长稳固。这并非最终定论,但已是美国经济有史以来最接近实现软着陆(即在避免经济衰退的同时遏制通胀)的一次。就在四年前,许多经济学家还认为这不可能。如今,美国经济在不陷入衰退的情况下让通胀回落至美联储 2% 目标的情景,再次变得可信。

不过即使不需要氧气面罩,现在解开安全带还为时过早。美联储偏爱的通胀指标核心 PCE 年率目前接近 3%,多位预测人士预计,随着与关税相关的价格上涨传导到更多地方,今年通胀难有大的进展。与此同时,劳动力市场可能不如上周报告所显示的那么稳固。Payden&Rygel 首席经济学家杰弗里·克利夫兰表示,客观地说,劳动力市场一直疲软,今年失业率更可能上升而非下降。

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