
伍德認為 AI 非泡沫而是長期投資,比特幣下跌源於情緒與流動性,投資人應回歸技術成熟度與總體經濟判斷,多重因素考量。
Cathie Wood (伍德) 在 Ark Invest 節目中向投資人表達她對近期 AI 泡沫化言論再度重現與投資人對比特幣集體恐慌的看法。她提醒投資人因從技術成熟度、資產定價與宏觀流動性中辨識出投資價值,以下整理影片觀點,分析 Cathie Wood 對人工智慧、加密資產與整體金融環境現況的看法。
人工智慧是泡沫嗎?經歷過上個泡沫經濟的長輩過度擔憂
伍德用圖表說明,科技產業資本支出占 GDP 的比重已接近歷史高點,與過往泡沫時期相仿,引發投資人不安,Wood 表示她認識許多經驗豐富的投資者,在網路泡沫年代時還年輕,現在都已是白髮蒼蒼的老年人,他們經歷過那段泡沫時期,認為需要保護自己與企業免受泡沫的影響,在企業決策中更傾向保守,試圖避免重蹈覆轍。

Wood 表示人工智慧相關資本支出週期將比過去更長,爭論的核心不僅在於支出規模,而在於這些技術投入是否能在未來轉化為穩定且可持續的生產力。網路泡沫時期,多數技術還不成熟,成本太高,現在的本益比跟以前完全不一樣,而現在,一場巨大的顛覆出現,叫做人工智慧,企業如果想保持競爭力,就必須投資人工智慧,他們必須抓住時機,但某些只專注於短期利益的股東並不這麼想。
比特幣謠言擴散,加劇市場波動
近年黃金價格持續走高,但比特幣自高點明顯回落。Wood 透過圖表指出,自 2019 年以來,比特幣與黃金的報酬率相關性僅約 0.14(註:1 代表完全相關),顯示比特幣的價格行為與黃金存在顯著差異,更接近高波動性的風險資產,而非傳統避險標的。
她指出市場近期充斥各種負面傳聞,使投資情緒轉弱,進一步對價格形成壓力 、引發階段性拋售潮。這類情況在高波動資產中尤為常見,往往放大短期價格變化。

Wood 亦提到,比特幣近期的波動部分來自量子計算議題再度受到關注。不過,她認為在可預見的十多年內,量子運算尚不足以對現行區塊鏈架構構成實質威脅。相較之下,宏觀流動性的變化對市場影響更為直接,包括政府預算不確定性、就業數據、聯準會的聯邦基準利率,以及國際利率走勢,均對資金環境造成收縮壓力,進而放大市場震盪。
Wood 最後提醒,市場每次出現劇烈波動時,事後常有人認為錯失低點進場機會,但在實際低點出現時,市場情緒往往轉為高度恐慌。她認為,投資判斷不應僅聚焦於價格走勢,而需綜合評估技術、宏觀環境、政策監理與市場結構等多重因素,才能降低決策偏誤。
- 本文經授權轉載自:《鏈新聞》
- 原文標題:《伍德:長輩害怕 AI 泡沫,謠言造成比特幣恐慌》
- 原文作者:DW
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