Odaily星球日报讯 K33 研究主管 Vetle Lunde 表示，比特币自 10 月高点已下跌约 40%，上周单周跌幅达 11%，受全球风险偏好下降影响明显。尽管近期价格走势与 2018 年和 2022 年深度抛售存在“令人不安的相似性”，但 Lunde 强调 “这次不同”，预计不会出现类似前两轮周期的 80% 峰谷回撤。
Lunde 指出，目前市场环境与以往周期不同，原因包括机构采用增加、受监管产品资金流入，以及利率环境宽松。同时，多项常用于判断市场底部的指标已开始闪烁信号：
2 月 2 日，比特币出现百分位交易日达到 90 的高成交量，单日成交额超 80 亿美元，价格回探 2025 年低点。
衍生品市场上，未平仓合约和资金利率均跌入极端负值，伴随约 18 亿美元多头平仓，历史上此类情况常与反弹同时出现。
Lunde 强调，虽然底部信号出现，但尚未确凿，类似极端成交量和衍生品指标曾在假反弹或中途调整阶段出现。短期关键支撑位在 7.4 万美元 附近，下破可能加速下行，目标分别指向 2021 年 11 月高点附近 6.9 万美元 或 200 周均线约 5.8 万美元。
总体来看，Lunde 认为长期持有者暂无迫切抛售压力，当前价格为长期投资者 吸引入场的机会，并不预示重复 2018 或 2022 年的极端熊市。
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Articoli correlati
过去24小时全网爆仓2.5亿美元，多单占比近八成
Gate News 消息，3月23日，据 CoinAnk 数据，过去24小时全网爆仓2.5亿美元，其中多单爆仓约1.94亿美元，空单爆仓约5592万美元。分币种来看，比特币爆仓约7792万美元，以太坊爆仓约4909万美元。
GateNews2m fa
Dòng Tiền ETF Crypto Tuần 16-20/3: Bitcoin Tiếp Đà Tăng Trưởng, Ethereum Ghi Nhận Dòng Tiền Rút Ròng
The cryptocurrency market saw mixed trends last week, with Bitcoin Spot ETFs attracting $95.18 million in inflows, while Ethereum Spot ETFs faced $59.94 million in outflows. Altcoin ETFs showed positive signs, with SOL and XRP also seeing net inflows.
TapChiBitcoin31m fa
数据：BTC 突破 71,421 美元，主流 CEX 空单清算强度将达 12.7 亿美元
Gate News 消息，3 月 23 日，据 Coinglass 数据显示，若 BTC 突破 71,421 美元，主流 CEX 累计空单清算强度将达 12.7 亿美元。反之，若 BTC 跌破 64,705 美元，主流 CEX 累计多单清算强度将达 7.58 亿美元。
GateNews37m fa
Anthony Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Still in Play, Expects Q4 2026 Recovery
SkyBridge Capital Managing Partner Anthony Scaramucci stated in a March 22, 2026, interview that Bitcoin's current bear market is consistent with the cryptocurrency's traditional four-year cycle, projecting choppy price action for most of the year before a new bull market begins in the fourth quarter of 2026.
CryptopulseElite50m fa
日幣升息無望？日債崩盤「殖利率升27年高點」，荷莫茲海峽戰爭掐住日本經濟
日本10年期國債殖利率升至2.32%，接近27年來最高點，市場擔憂地緣政治緊張將影響經濟及加密市場。川普對伊朗48小時的最後通牒令能源價格飆升，且日本依賴的原油運輸路徑受威脅，可能導致通膨惡化。日本央行面臨升息與經濟復甦之間的困境，而殖利率上升可能觸發投資者平倉，對比特幣等風險資產造成衝擊。
動區BlockTempo1h fa
Polymarket: Bitcoin có 61% khả năng chạm $60K trước $80K
Polymarket data indicates traders anticipate Bitcoin will decline before a significant rise. The probability of BTC reaching $60,000 before $80,000 is now at 61%, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid macro volatility and selling pressure. The possibility of Bitcoin breaking past $80,000 remains, depending on stronger supportive factors.
TapChiBitcoin1h fa
