比特幣周末遭遇亂流，價格急遽下挫並摜破 7.8 萬美元關卡，創下自去年 4 月以來最低點。這波跌勢主要源於獲利了結賣壓湧現，恰逢市場流動性枯竭，加上新進買盤意興闌珊，導致幣價支撐力道潰散。
根據 CoinGecko 行情數據顯示，比特幣目前的交易價格為 76,872 美元，過去一周跌幅達 12.2% 。
交易員普遍認為，先前支撐行情的重要動能，尤其是由企業買盤撐起的需求，包括 Strategy（MSTR）持續加碼比特幣—— 如今已逐漸退燒，市場結構因此變得更加脆弱，極易受到連鎖賣壓、衍生品強制平倉潮的衝擊。
對於部分市場分析師而言，比特幣周末下殺早在預料之中，這僅是數月來空頭格局的延續。
曾任職於紐約證交所 Arca 選擇權交易員的 Eric Crown 早在去年 10 月下旬就提出警告，指出比特幣已進入「橫盤偏空」階段，市場對於重返歷史新高、或期待資金從貴金屬回流幣圈的樂觀情緒，不過是多頭們在自我安慰。
「我從 10 月底就認為比特幣正處於橫盤和下跌階段…… 我不覺得 8 萬美元是這波大週期修正的底部，」Eric Crown 強調，近期的價格波動只是更大規模回調的一部分。
選擇權市場的數據也印證了這股濃厚的看空氛圍。目前交易員正大舉押注幣價將跌破 7.5 萬美元，並紛紛撤守對於 10 萬美元的看漲押注。
根據 Deribit 平台數據，履約價在 7.5 萬美元的賣權（看跌選擇權）未平倉合約價值高達 11.59 億美元，已逼近 10 萬美元買權（看漲選擇權）11.68 億美元的規模。
Eric Crown 進一步點出了幾個歷史上極為準確、預示深度回調的技術指標：
- 月線 MACD 翻空： 該指標在去年 11 月出現罕見的下彎交叉，這在歷史上屬於罕見訊號，往往伴隨較長時間的跌勢。
- 周線 EMA 均線進入看跌區域： 21 周與 55 周指數移動平均線（EMA）近期形成空頭排列，過往經驗顯示，這種結構通常意味著數月級別的回檔風險。
- K 線型態示警： 2025 年的年線收出「射擊之星（Shooting Star）」型態，這種型態在技術分析中是典型的中期趨勢反轉訊號。
比特幣月線 MACD 出現下彎交叉。（TradingView）
比特幣會跌到 5 萬美元？
更令多頭不安的是，自去年 10 月以來，比特幣與傳統市場出現明顯背離：在美股與其他風險資產力守高檔時，比特幣卻獨自走跌。 Eric Crown 認為，這是典型的週期末端避險行為。
「大家通常會先拋售最具投機性的資產，」他解釋道。此外，去年 10 月的市場崩跌已將大量高槓桿競爭幣合約清洗出場，導致交易員對於在高點重新進場感到畏懼。
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