没有人相信“狼来了”的呼喊。笔者平时对彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）的话也是左耳进右耳出。他不断抨击比特币是骗局，对表现优异的技术股吹毛求疵，一开口就倾泻悲观论调，市场常常将其视为“坏掉的钟表”。但该承认的还得承认。这次希夫是对的。 当前的市场状况正按照他的预言发展。
黄金和白银价格正一飞冲天。不能简单归咎于投机势力的炒作。这是对我们经济系统核心发出的骇人警告，也是市场发出的无声尖叫。
让我们理性思考一下。投资者们正在全球范围内像扔破鞋一样抛售被认为最安全的美国国债。抛弃定期付息的国债，转而逃向毫无利息的“非收益性资产”黄金，这种怪象正在发生。这是资本主义逻辑无法解释的悖论。这是投资者选择了资产保全（Preservation）而非收益（Yield）的可怕信号。
希夫的诊断很明确。金价上涨不是问题。本质在于黄金是在“美国国家债务爆炸性增长之际”上涨。美国政府为偿还债务而印制天文数字般的债券，但市场已无力承接。不，更准确地说，是失去了意愿。这意味着市场参与者对美元和国债这一核心系统宣告了“信任撤回”。
市场的眼光是犀利的。冷酷的计算已然成立：“要偿还滚雪球般膨胀的债务，最终只能让货币贬值。”过去十余年间我们纵情享受的“流动性盛宴”，账单开始寄来了。
那么，我们该怎么做？答案很明确：必须抛弃惯性才能生存。
第一，必须重新定义“安全资产”。“美国国债=无风险”这个等式已被打破。金银的暴涨证明资金正大规模流向“无发行主体风险的实物资产（Hard Assets）”。若只迷信基于纸币的投资组合，必将遭受损失。
第二，应关注资金的“脚”而非专家的“嘴”。现在不是被比特币是死是活的噪音（Noise）左右的时候。巨额资本已停止收益率游戏，躲进了“价值保全”的防空洞。逆这股巨大的资金流向（Money Move）而动是鲁莽之举。
第三，必须为严酷的大浪淘沙做好准备。借钱投资就必然上涨的时代已经结束。缺乏实质的主题股将如秋风落叶，唯有稀缺性和可信度得到验证的资产才能存活。
贵金属平时沉默，却在危机时刻尖叫着揭示真相。此刻那尖叫正如同警报般鸣响。若因讨厌信使而连信息也一并无视，那么在即将到来的滔天巨浪面前，必将束手无策。现在是必须打起精神的时候了。
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