宏观经济师分析:美国正走向大规模衰退,而美联储却视而不见

ChainCatcher 消息,据 Finbold 报道,宏观经济学家 Henrik Zeberg 在  X 平台发文,美联储拥有超过 400 名经济学博士,却仍错过了显而易见且具有启发意义的经济模式。他表示,我们正走向一场大规模的经济衰退,尽管美联储拥有大量的资源,却对此视而不见。 Zeberg 强调,理解商业周期中事件的正确顺序对于预测经济衰退至关重要,美联储目前的预期低估了即将到来的经济衰退的严重程度和时间。 报道称,他认为失业率在每一次重大经济衰退之前就已经出现,并且仍然是一个“永远不会出错”的指标。而美国 11 月份失业率达到 4.6%,为四年来最高水平,逼近萨姆规则设定的衰退阈值,并将经济衰退的可能性推高至约 40%。

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