PANews 12月19日消息,据CryptoQuant分析师MorenoDV表示,比特币的估值重置正在发生。通过观察比特币NVT黄金交叉指标(以100日移动平均线平滑处理),可以评估市场估值与链上经济活动的关系。NVT被视为比特币的市盈率,其中交易量替代了收益,用以回答网络市值是否与实际经济活动相符的问题。
当前NVT黄金交叉指标显示,短期NVT显著低于长期趋势,表明比特币市场价值相较于链上活动存在折价。历史上,当指标深度负偏离时,通常反映市场情绪低迷及网络结构性低估。此次周期中,该指标曾跌至-0.58的历史低点,目前已回升至约-0.32,显示价格正在逐步与交易驱动的基本面重新对齐,但仍处于保守估值区间。
这一现象通常出现在去杠杆和风险规避阶段,随后市场进入积累期,并推动更健康的价格发现。当前市场正从深度低估向均衡过渡,资金选择性增强,或预示加密市场的结构性改善和长期机会。
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