今日举行的12月FOMC会议成为全球市场关注焦点，投资者正密切追踪美联储利率决议及经济预测，判断2026年的货币政策走向，并评估其对比特币、以太坊等加密资产的潜在影响。
市场预测本次降息25个基点的概率高达80%至92%，若成真，联邦基金利率区间将降至3.50%至3.75%，也将是今年第三次降息。暂停或意外加息的可能性极低，但只要决议与预期存在偏差，仍可能引发剧烈市场波动。
除了利率决议，投资者同样关注经济预测摘要（SEP）和点阵图。当前分析师普遍预计，美国GDP增速或维持在约2.1%，失业率约为4.2%，核心通胀率约2.5%。点阵图将显示政策制定者对2026年的降息节奏预测，市场预期未来可能还有3–4次降息。鲍威尔将在美东时间12月10日举行新闻发布会，也可能谈及量化紧缩（QT）节奏是否放缓。
对于加密货币市场而言，本次FOMC会议或成为短期波动催化剂。比特币目前在90,500至91,500美元区间震荡，以太坊徘徊在3,100美元附近。若如预期降息25个基点，且点阵图偏鸽派，市场流动性可能提升，使比特币冲向92,000至95,000美元区间，同时触发约1.2亿美元的空头清算，加剧向上波动。
但若出现“鹰派降息”或暂停降息，市场可能快速转为避险情绪。比特币可能回调至88,000至89,000美元，以太坊可能跌破3,000美元，其他风险资产也将承压。
目前市场情绪“谨慎偏乐观”。散户情绪趋于紧张，但机构资金仍在加仓，显示若结果偏鸽派，短线回调或将成为新的买入机会。此次FOMC会议或成为年底加密市场重要拐点。
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