稳定币规模扩张前景受质疑,华尔街认为难以改变美债需求格局

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据彭博社,美国通过首个稳定币立法 GENIUS 法案后,华尔街围绕稳定币能否真正提升美元需求并为短期美债带来新增买盘出现明显分歧,JPMorgan、Deutsche Bank、Goldman Sachs 等机构的策略师普遍认为,现在将其视为“结构性改变”仍为时过早。分析人士指出,稳定币资金主要来源于货币市场基金、银行存款、现金和离岸美元,而在 GENIUS 法案下稳定币不得支付利息,收益敏感型资金缺乏从储蓄账户和货币基金迁出的动力,因此即使稳定币扩张,其对国库券的净需求可能主要体现为持有人结构转移而非新增需求;此外,若稳定币相关美元被视作美联储负债,美联储可能相应缩减国债资产,从而抵消部分稳定币带来的需求增量;在联邦债务已超过 30 万亿美元并预计未来十年再增加 22 万亿美元的背景下,稳定币难以从根本上缓解美国的债务与赤字压力。

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