Gate Latest Crypto Assets Market Analysis (October 23): Bitcoin is in "extreme fear", TGT surges against the trend by nearly 65%

On October 23, Bitcoin was quoted at $108,200, Ethereum at $3,827, and the ETH spot trading volume surpassed BTC for the first time, indicating an increase in ecological activity. The Crypto Assets Fear and Greed Index is at 27 points, falling within the fear range, and market sentiment is cautious. Alts are showing mixed performance, with TGT experiencing a big pump of 64% to $0.0197, igniting the GameFi concept.

Bitcoin 106,000 USD life and death line determines direction

The current price of Bitcoin is 108,200 USD, with a slight increase of 0.6% over the last 24 hours. The price momentum is in a state of consolidation, with intense long and short battles near the 110,000 USD mark. Institutions continue to be bullish, with listed companies holding over 1 million coins, marking a historic milestone. Continuous accumulation by listed companies such as Strategy, Tesla, and Marathon Digital provides structural buying support for Bitcoin. The key support level is at 106,000 USD, which is a convergence point of multiple technical factors; if breached, it will open the downside space towards 100,000 USD. The key resistance level is at 112,000 USD; breaking through this level will pave the way to 120,000 USD.

From the perspective of cryptocurrency market analysis, Bitcoin's consolidation between $106,000 and $112,000 is a typical accumulation phase before a directional choice. BTC's 24-hour trading volume is nearly $15 billion, with good liquidity, indicating that market participation has not diminished. In this high liquidity environment, once a clear breakout signal appears, price movement could be very rapid.

In terms of trend indicators, the continuous institutional investment is the most core feature of this bull market. The amount of coins held by listed companies has surpassed 1 million, which means it accounts for about 4.76% of the total Bitcoin supply. These Bitcoins are locked on the institutional balance sheets and will not easily flow into the market, thus reducing the circulating supply and supporting the price. In addition, the ongoing inflow of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF (although there have been fluctuations recently) has also provided a stable buying force for the market.

Key Levels for Bitcoin Crypto Assets Market Analysis:

Current Price: 108.2 thousand USD (+0.6%)

Key Support: $106,000 (if lost, will test $100,000)

Key Resistance: $112,000 (a breakthrough would challenge $120,000)

Liquidity Status: 24-hour volume of 15 billion USD, sufficient.

The ecological significance of Ethereum's spot volume surpassing Bitcoin for the first time

Ethereum is priced at $3,827, with a slight increase of 0.58% over the last 24 hours, and the price momentum is fluctuating around $4,300, facing short-term pressure. However, the most noteworthy aspect of the Crypto Assets market analysis is that the spot trading volume has surpassed BTC for the first time, indicating increased ecosystem activity. The 24-hour trading volume for ETH is approximately $7.2 billion, and although the absolute value is less than Bitcoin, considering that the unit price of Ethereum is far lower than that of Bitcoin, the actual number of Ethereum traded may be higher.

The spot trading volume surpassing Bitcoin reflects the continuous development of the Ethereum (/buy-ethereum-eth) ecosystem. In the DeFi space, the TVL of protocols such as Aave, Uniswap, and Curve remains stable. The Layer 2 ecosystem is experiencing explosive growth, with the number of users and trading volume of Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base rapidly increasing. These activities will ultimately reflect the demand on the Ethereum mainnet. Furthermore, active institutional trading is also a reason for the increase in trading volume of Ethereum (/sell-ethereum-eth), as many institutions require Ethereum to participate in DeFi, purchase NFTs, or conduct on-chain asset management.

The key support level is at $3,700, which is an integer level and also the lower boundary of the previous consolidation range. The key resistance level is at $4,000, which is a psychological level and a critical level that Ethereum has repeatedly attempted to breach during this upward movement but has not been able to break through effectively. From a technical perspective, Ethereum needs to hold the $3,700 support to maintain the current structure. If it successfully stabilizes and breaks above $4,000, it will open the path to $4,300 or even a new historical high.

GameFi concept TGT big pump 64% leading altcoins

The performance of alts is extremely differentiated, with some low-market-cap tokens experiencing explosive price surges. TGT has had a big pump of 64% in 24 hours, currently at $0.0197, and the GameFi concept has drawn market attention with high trading activity. Such price increases are not uncommon in Crypto Assets market analysis, usually driven by new listings, concept speculation, or community discussions. GameFi, which combines blockchain gaming and DeFi, is an emerging track that experienced explosive growth in 2021 and is currently seeking a second wave of growth.

TEDDY has pumped 19.5% in 24 hours, with a very low price. It is a new token that is a hot topic in the community and comes with high risks. Tokens with extremely low prices often attract retail investors looking for “get rich overnight” opportunities, but the risks associated with such tokens are also very high, as the project's fundamentals are often weak and price fluctuations can be severe. KFT has pumped 21.15% in 24 hours, with a minimal price and relatively low trading volume. Low trading volume indicates poor liquidity, and large buy or sell orders can cause extreme price fluctuations.

Investment warning for altcoins in cryptocurrency market analysis: A high pump does not equal high quality. Although a 64% pump is eye-catching, most are short-term speculative trades with questionable sustainability. In terms of liquidity risk, low market cap tokens usually have poorer liquidity, and large buy/sell orders can cause severe price fluctuations. A review of the project's fundamentals is crucial; before investing, one should thoroughly research the project team, technology, application scenarios, and token economics.

The extreme performance of alts contrasts sharply with the stable trends of mainstream coins. When mainstream coins are consolidating, speculative funds often flow into low market cap alts in search of high returns. However, this kind of pump is often unsustainable, and once the funds withdraw, prices may quickly fall back or even crash.

Fear and Greed Index 27 and Volatility 60% Strategy Framework

The technical indicator composite analysis shows that the Fear and Greed Index is at 27 points, in the “fear” zone, indicating a cautious market sentiment with a high possibility of short-term adjustment. An index below 30 is usually seen as a signal of market overselling, which may create an opportunity for a rebound. However, while 27 is close to extreme panic, it has not yet reached a historic low, and the market may further decline.

The liquidity health assessment shows that the 24-hour trading volume of BTC is nearly 15 billion USD, indicating good liquidity; the 24-hour trading volume of ETH is about 7.2 billion USD, with sufficient market depth; price fluctuations are relatively mild, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. This environment of ample liquidity provides investors with better conditions for entering and exiting the market, and large transactions will not cause excessive impact on prices.

In terms of investment strategy recommendations, the entry timing for short-term trading strategies is around BTC 106,000 and ETH 3,700. These are key support levels. If support is obtained here and a rebound occurs, the risk-reward ratio is relatively favorable. The take-profit and stop-loss settings are BTC ±5% stop-loss and ETH ±7% stop-loss. These percentages are based on the historical volatility of the two assets. Position management should conservatively allocate no more than 20% of total assets, with a medium risk rating.

The trend judgment for mid-term investment layout is mainly a震蕩調整 with a cautious bullish outlook. The allocation suggestion is 60% BTC, 30% ETH, and 10% for other coins. This allocation is defensive in nature, with mainstream coins accounting for as much as 90%, which can maintain relative stability amidst market fluctuations. Key points to pay attention to are SEC regulatory policies and institutional investment trends. Scenario analysis: Increase allocation of top coins in a bull market, and reduce positions to keep cash in a bear market.

The probability assessment of market outlook shows a 60% chance of consolidation, a 30% chance of a slight pump, and a 10% chance of a severe adjustment. This probability distribution indicates that the market is in a transitional phase with unclear direction, and consolidation is the most likely scenario. Catalyst events include regulatory policies and institutional investment trends, and changes in these factors will determine the next direction of the market.

The Risks and Opportunities of Crypto Assets Market Analysis:

Core Risks: Global macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory policy changes, rapid changes in liquidity, SEC tightening regulations.

Market Opportunity: The Fear and Greed Index at 27 is close to extreme fear, historically this range has often been a good opportunity for contrarian investment.

Configuration Framework: BTC 60% + ETH 30% + Others 10%, defensive allocation suitable for the current environment

Position Suggestion: Total assets within 20%, enter in batches, set clear stop loss.

For trading strategies, the current environment suggests cautious optimism. The Fear and Greed Index at 27 shows fear sentiment, but has not reached extreme panic; the market may further oscillate or dip. Therefore, it is not advisable to enter with heavy positions, but to maintain moderate positions and gradually build near key support levels. If Bitcoin breaks above $112,000, consider moderately increasing positions; if it falls below $106,000, decisively cut losses and wait for clearer signals.