杜克大學金融學教授研究指出，比特幣面臨的「51% 攻擊」風險被嚴重低估，攻擊者僅需約 60 億美元就能摧毀比特幣網路。本文源自華爾街見聞所著文章，由 Foresight News 整理、編譯及撰稿。 （前情提要：薩爾瓦多將 6285 枚比特幣拆分到 14 個錢包：抵禦量子攻擊威脅 ） （背景補充：面對量子攻擊，中本聰的109萬枚比特幣該動嗎？ ） 杜克大學金融學教授發表論文，比特幣面臨的「51% 攻擊」威脅被市場嚴重低估，攻擊者可透過購買價值 46 億美元的硬體設備、投入 13.4 億美元建設資料中心再加上每週約 1.3 億美元的電力成本，在一週內完成對比特幣網路的控制。 最新研究顯示，比特幣面臨的「51% 攻擊」威脅被市場嚴重低估，攻擊者僅需約 60 億美元就能摧毀比特幣。 10 月 9 日，杜克大學金融學教授 Campbell Harvey 在最新研究中警告，儘管比特幣和黃金都被視為「貨幣貶值交易」的寵兒，但比特幣面臨的風險遠超黃金。 攻擊者可透過購買價值 46 億美元的硬體設備、投入 13.4 億美元建設資料中心，再加上每週約 1.3 億美元的電力成本，在一週內完成對比特幣網路的控制。 隔夜比特幣反彈失敗，較日高一度下挫約 3.3% 透過衍生品市場做空比特幣，攻擊者可在比特幣價格暴跌時獲得巨額利潤，足以覆蓋攻擊成本。Harvey 強調： 你可以用 60 億美元摧毀比特幣的價值，雖然這種攻擊聽起來過於技術性，但可信度很高。 美國比特幣公司總裁 Matt Prusak 認為這種擔憂被誇大，積累和部署挖礦設備需要數年時間，而且做空需要巨額抵押品，交易所也可能暫停可疑交易。 51% 攻擊：比特幣的根本性威脅 51% 攻擊是指單一方控制區塊鏈網路超過一半算力的情況。 一旦成功，攻擊者就能篡改帳本、偽造交易，甚至進行「雙花攻擊」——即同一數位代幣被重複使用。相比之下，黃金不存在類似的系統性風險。 此外，當前比特幣衍生品市場的繁榮為 51% 攻擊提供了經濟誘因。 Harvey 的論文指出，交易者可建立空頭部位，用不到日均交易量 10% 的資金獲得巨額利潤，足以覆蓋攻擊成本。 這種利潤機制使得攻擊的經濟可行性大幅提升，特別是考慮到攻擊成本僅佔比特幣網路總價值的 0.26%，遠低於許多投資者的預期。Harvey 強調： 攻擊成本低廉是比特幣未來可行性和安全性的嚴重問題。 Harvey 進一步指出，這類攻擊很可能在海外進行，因為許多地區缺乏有效的市場操縱防範措施。 業界對攻擊風險存在分歧 儘管 Harvey 提出嚴重警告，但業界對此存在不同觀點。 Prusak 認為經濟可行性不足以支撐 51% 攻擊理論，他指出： 積累和部署足夠的挖礦設備需要數年時間，這在現實中並不可行。 Prusak 還強調，做空比特幣需要巨額抵押品，而且如果交易所懷疑存在操縱行為，可能暫停交易，使攻擊者無法兌現收益。 此前其他區塊鏈確實曾遭受 51% 攻擊並倖存下來。 比特幣分叉幣 Bitcoin Gold 和以太坊經典都曾受到攻擊，但它們是規模較小的區塊鏈，礦工支持度較低，更容易受到操縱。 相關報導 川普：美國成功「攻擊伊朗3座核設施」打破半世紀紅線，比特幣閃崩100,866美元 微策略回嗆「比特幣量子攻擊」，Michael Saylor：杞人憂天，若成真Google、微軟會先倒 PoS更安全？開發者：攻擊以太坊成本遠超比特幣的100億美元〈60億美元就能摧毀比特幣？金融學教授：BTC「51%攻擊」成本沒那麼高〉這篇文章最早發佈於動區BlockTempo《動區動趨-最具影響力的區塊鏈新聞媒體》。
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