历史能否重演?比特币关键指标或预示新一轮上涨

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BTC0,87%

Gate News bot 消息,一个关键指标表明,比特币的价格可能很快会变得更加不稳定,可能推动下一轮上涨。

该指标基于布林带之间的缺口。注:布林带是位于比特币价格20周简单移动均线上下两个标准差的波动带。

当缺口扩大时,表明市场更加活跃且波动性更大。历史上,在BTC大幅上涨之前都会观察到这种现象。当缺口缩小时,则表明市场活动减少。

该缺口,也称为布林带价差(bollinger band spread),可能很快会扩大,这对多头来说是一个积极信号,因为与该缺口相关的MACD柱状图已转为正值。历史数据显示,MACD的正向交叉通常先于比特币的大幅牛市出现。

BTC 周线图(来源:TradingView/CoinDesk)

上方窗格以 K 线图形式显示比特币每周的开盘价、最高价、最低价和收盘价(基于UTC时间 ),中间窗格显示价差,即布林带之间的差距,下方窗格中 MACD 与价差相关联。

MACD 现已转为正值,表明价差或波动性将再次扩大。默认情况下,波动性与价格无关,这意味着即将发生的活动可能是看涨或看跌。

仔细观察上图就会发现,MACD 先前的正向交叉(以垂直线标记)预示着重大牛市,包括 2020 年末和 2024 年末的价格反弹。历史是否会重演?让我们拭目以待。

消息来源:CoinDesk

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