#创作者冲榜 Gold Can Still Rise Back?

The pressing question on the market right now is whether gold prices can recover. Huaxia Fund analysis shows that gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset, has been declining continuously since March because gold's safe-haven characteristics are reflected in the collapse of US dollar credit and uncontrolled inflation, rather than in liquidity depletion and deflation risks. The current market is worried about marginal deterioration in liquidity, while the impact from geopolitical conflicts has clearly weakened.

The institution believes that the tight monetary shock on gold is more temporary in nature, while long-term logic such as geopolitical conflicts and central banks' gold-buying remain unshaked or reversed. Gold's medium to long-term upward momentum continues, but in the short term, we still need to wait for risk release. Facing market panic sentiment, institutions still maintain that short-term pain does not obscure gold's long-term allocation value.

UBS Wealth Management believes that geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank buying, and safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices. The recent gold price adjustment is consistent with previous geopolitical crises, and as risks persist and real interest rates decline, gold is expected to reach new highs this year.

Guangdong Kaiyuan Securities Chief Economist Luo Zhiheng points out that the current sharp drop in gold is not a signal of the end of the bull market, but a deep pullback in an uptrend. In the long term, the normalization of global geopolitical risks, strong gold-buying demand from non-US central banks, and the risk of global economy shifting from "inflation" to "stagflation" will all provide solid support for gold prices.

However, institutions have generally given cautious advice to investors eager to "bottom fish."

"Technical analysis indicates that the gold price has clearly broken through the 60-day moving average, a key support level, meaning further downside may open up."

The aforementioned trader suggested that given that unfavorable factors such as Fed monetary policy and US dollar trends are still brewing, the short-term downtrend has not yet ended. Ordinary investors should not blindly catch falling knives in a downtrend. One could wait for gold prices to consolidate between 4400-4600 USD/ounce, and then gradually establish positions for medium to long-term holding.