#加密市场上涨 Bitcoin surged to 73924 before pulling back. How will the bulls and bears choose a direction amid the market struggle?

Today, both BTC and ETH rallied and then retreated in the afternoon. In the macro landscape, the easing of Middle East tensions clashes with expectations of Fed rate cuts. Technically, high-level volume expansion shows oscillation with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate in the short term. In the medium term, we need to closely monitor the Fed's interest rate decision and crypto industry upgrade events, seizing trend momentum amid volatility while maintaining a rational perspective on market fluctuations.

**Macro Perspective: The Tug-of-War Between Geopolitics and Capital**

Let's start with the macro picture. Today's coin price rally followed by a decline essentially reflects multiple forces pulling in different directions. First, the limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz made oil prices less intimidating, the dollar weakened accordingly, and investors became more willing to take risks on risk assets. BTC and ETH surged continuously, with Bitcoin touching 73924 USD and Ethereum reaching 2280. However, U.S. inflation data proved stubbornly persistent, and markets feared the Fed might delay rate cuts. Profit-taking selling at high levels quickly materialized, pushing prices lower. Additionally, with institutional capital from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continuing to flow in, spot buying support is preventing steeper declines, so the overall momentum remains strong.

**Technical Perspective: Signals of High-Level Oscillation**

Looking at the technical picture using the 1-hour K-line, it's quite revealing. Bitcoin first oscillated upward today, then suddenly surged on volume in the afternoon, followed immediately by a bearish candle with a long upper wick, signaling considerable selling pressure above. Currently, it's hovering around 73400 with exceptionally high trading volume—a real arm-wrestling match between bulls and bears. Ethereum's movement is nearly synchronized, rallying to 2280 before retreating, now hovering around 2248, similarly showing high-level oscillation with a long upper wick on the candle, indicating clear near-term pullback pressure. However, the overall trend hasn't broken key support levels and remains in a strong zone.

**Outlook: Short-Term Struggle, Medium-Term Policy Focus**

**Short-term:** There are no major data releases tonight. Main focus is on Middle East developments and ETF capital flows. If there's another geopolitical hiccup or ETFs continue showing net inflows, coins may surge again; if Fed officials turn hawkish, watch out for further pullbacks.

**Medium-term:** The key date is the Fed meeting on March 17-18. Powell's remarks will directly impact rate cut expectations. A dovish tone would favor coins; a hawkish tone would pressure risk assets.

Additionally, Ethereum's Pectra upgrade testnet is coming online soon, which is bullish for scaling long-term. While crypto compliance advancement faces short-term regulatory pressure, it will stabilize the industry and attract more capital.

Markets are like climbing a mountain—don't panic over small pebbles underfoot; keep your eyes on the distant peak. Short-term fluctuations are merely scenery along the way. What truly determines how far you can go is your judgment of direction and the patience to endure. Keep your composure, take it slowly, and you'll eventually see the landscape that belongs to you.