torygreen
Most people underestimate how long high-end knowledge work will survive.
They see AI crushing mid-level tasks and assume the curve continues smoothly upward.
It won’t.
Because “harder tasks” aren’t just the same tasks that need more IQ.
AI is already elite at:
1. Pattern matching
2. Retrieval
3. First-order synthesis
4. Fluency
5. Speed
That wipes out huge swaths of junior and mid-tier work.
Anything that looks like “turn inputs into outputs” becomes cheap, fast, and abundant.
But elite knowledge work operates in a different regime.
It’s not “produce the answer.”
It's “decide what to do next.”
They see AI crushing mid-level tasks and assume the curve continues smoothly upward.
It won’t.
Because “harder tasks” aren’t just the same tasks that need more IQ.
AI is already elite at:
1. Pattern matching
2. Retrieval
3. First-order synthesis
4. Fluency
5. Speed
That wipes out huge swaths of junior and mid-tier work.
Anything that looks like “turn inputs into outputs” becomes cheap, fast, and abundant.
But elite knowledge work operates in a different regime.
It’s not “produce the answer.”
It's “decide what to do next.”