TonyTheBull

The “business cycle” narrative in Bitcoin/crypto is the new M2 chart
Over a year ago, I cautioned against the clear cherry-picky of a visual correlation that ignored reality and confirmed biases
Try and recall which accounts were ready to live and die by this meaningless, temporary correlation in M2 and realize they’re the same ones clinging onto the business cycle turning up from here
ISM/PMI is due for a cyclical trough next now that it’s past peak cycle amplitude — you can’t just point to it rising because your portfolio and your bullish reputation rides on it
A cyclical lower low is very

Bitcoin’s yearly close is tonight
Here’s the yearly line chart with markers
Below is the ISM/PMI everyone is using to justify why BTC will soon go parabolic
Come to your own conclusions

My 2026 preview is out now and it’s free for everyone:
It features:
Bitcoin’s yearly chart — what the Doji means
All about the quarterly Evening Star and a 72% chance of reversal
Altcoins — why you should avoid
Business cycle behavior and secular shifts from stocks to commodities

The TD Sequential automatically paints TDST Support levels
The indicator suggests that quarterly support on TOTAL3 is at $53M... not $53B, but $53M

This chart shows a strong trend entering a decision phase — momentum has slowed, control still belongs to buyers, but the market is now testing whether conviction remains or whether this advance has already done its job
The doji at the top is not a sell signal — it is the first admission by the market that upward certainty has ended. What follows will determine whether this is digestion, distribution, or a final push

Emotionless signal across multiple timeframes

Ready for the bull trap?

Silver’s monthly candle shows STRENGTH
Look at this comparison with Bitcoin circa 2017
BTC did around another 10-15x after this
Silver prob won’t do that much but it has a lot more left to go, short term and longer term
Crypto bros expect faster pullbacks between trending moves because that’s what they’re used to — but that’s not how metals behave
This rally was 40+ years in the making
Not a 4 year cycle. But a 40 year
Don’t expect the same trends to unfold as if the took only four years to develop

What if Bitcoin vs Silver is a glimpse into the future?
Essentially, before and after

OTHERS/SILVER 3M
Q4 20217 alt season candle to be wiped out completely IMO
Quarterly RSI is the lowest ever with a massive black down candlestick
I'd estimate the lower Bollinger Band to be the target area for support

OTHERS/SILVER 12M
Hard to recommend buying Silver after such a gain, but even harder to recommend buying altcoins over Silver when the ratio looks like this

Extracting data for a 30+ minute video on Bitcoin and its quarterly Evening Star pattern — a bearish reversal pattern that confirms 72% of the time

Bitcoin vs Silver is absolutely wild to see
Most oversold ever on the monthly RSI
Back at 2017 levels
Extremely powerful downward directional momentum

Do not get married to your altcoin position — you risk a lifetime of abuse
My 1st week in crypto, I bought the alt below at $2
Within days it went to $10, but I didn’t sell. It’s trading at $0.10 today
It’s been roughly 8 years or 3000 days and it remains down 99.21% from ATH

Bitcoin CME monthly RSI reaches critical trend line — RSI uptrend still active

Interesting cyclical observation on the Bitcoin CME weekly RSI
RSI value hints at more to drop, while cyclical timing could suggest price is ready to climb again
Higher timeframes will still matter most

Bitcoin BTC CME 3D RSI is currently tied for the second most oversold reading ever
2018 bear market bottom is the only more oversold moment

ChatGPT Year in Review