【BlockBeats】Interesting employment data came out at the end of December. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits during the Christmas week dropped from 215,000 to 199,000, which looks pretty good— but here’s the problem: the forecast was 220,000, so this decline was actually smaller than expected.
Economists are cautious about this data. The reason is simple: the seasonal adjustment during holiday weeks was particularly strong this year, casting doubt on the data’s reliability. They believe we need to wait until mid to late January to see a more accurate signal from initial jobless claims.
That said, the total number of layoffs remains low, which is a positive sign. The December non-farm payrolls data to be released next week is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs. But this doesn’t mean the outlook is entirely optimistic. Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.7%, partly because the labor force participation rate is increasing—that is, more people are re-entering the job market, increasing competition.
So overall, the picture