FenerliBaba

Cryptocurrency Daily (02.24)：Bitcoin Under Pressure from Macro Disruptions and Capital Flows, Altcoins Show Structural Strength
I. Bitcoin Price Fluctuations and Short-Term Market Dynamics
1. Bitcoin has recently experienced intense volatility, dropping from $67,800 to $64,350, then slightly rebounding. The market is fiercely contesting the key support level at $65,000. Technical indicators show short-term resistance at $69,500-$70,000. A break below could see prices test the support zone at $59,900-$60,000.
2. Macro factors dominate market sentiment. Repeated tariff policies by Trump (including the Supreme Court rejecting emergency tariffs and announcing a 15% temporary tariff) have triggered risk aversion. Bitcoin's correlation with the US tech sector has strengthened, viewing it as a high-beta risk asset. Capital flow data shows Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for five consecutive weeks (totaling $3.8 billion), while altcoin ETFs (such as Solana, XRP) have seen inflows, indicating a market structure shifting toward specific niche segments.
II. Institutional and Major Holder Behavior and Capital Flows
1. The world's largest Bitcoin holder, Strategy, continues to increase holdings, planning its 100th purchase. It currently holds 717,131 BTC (average cost $76,027), facing approximately 13.62% unrealized loss. Funds come from convertible bonds and equity issuance.
2. Significant large-scale fund movements are evident. A newly created wallet withdrew 500 BTC from Bit, while whale funds surged to a 14-month high of $8.2 billion, raising concerns about short-term selling pressure.
3. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 1,292 BTC in a single day, while Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of 57,543 ETH. Institutional capital is rotating among different crypto assets, favoring Bitcoin and select altcoins.
III. Macro and Regulatory Factors Impacting the Market
1. Trump’s repeated tariff policies have shaken the market. After the Supreme Court rejected emergency tariffs, Trump announced a 15% temporary tariff on global goods (valid for 150 days), increasing trade uncertainty and boosting volatility in risk assets.
2. On the macroeconomic front, US crude oil prices rose due to Middle East tensions, boosting inflation expectations. The plunge in US tech stocks (software, private equity) transmitted to the crypto market, reducing risk appetite.
3. Regulatory and policy uncertainties have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, remains under pressure, with concerns about tightening liquidity intensifying.
IV. Market Participants and Structural Changes
1. Bitcoin’s market share dropped from 63.34% to 59.2%, the largest weekly decline in a year. The market structure is tilting toward altcoins, with institutional inflows into Solana, XRP, and other altcoin ETFs driving their prices higher.
2. Retail and institutional behaviors are diverging. Retail investors are experiencing panic, while institutions are strategically positioning via ETFs and large holdings. Privacy coins (ZEC, XMR), utility tokens (OKB), and real-world asset tokens (RWA) are performing notably.
3. Technical indicators show the altcoin seasonal index at 41, indicating a lack of broad market rally. Capital is concentrated in high-confidence niche sectors, such as high-performance Layer 1 networks, meme tokens, and assets favored by institutions.
V. Technology and Ecosystem Development
1. The BIP-110 proposal is gaining discussion in the Bitcoin community. Node signaling has increased from 2.98% to 7.99%, aiming to limit certain data field sizes and correct incentive distortions. The Fractal protocol, as a buffer extension layer, offers technical alternatives for different consensus outcomes.
2. Technical discussions focus on compatibility between mainnet and layer-2 solutions. The Fractal protocol is designed to carry complex states without altering mainnet consensus, avoiding market volatility caused by mainnet rule changes.
VI. Market Forecasts and Institutional Perspectives
1. Analysts have differing Bitcoin price forecasts for 2026. Most believe the normal bottom is between $50,000 and $60,000, with a break below $30,000 considered a low-probability extreme scenario requiring multiple negative factors (such as Fed rate hikes and global panic selling).
2. Attitudes among institutions and seasoned investors vary: Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas has increased Bitcoin holdings during price dips, viewing it as an inflation hedge. Others believe market panic is widespread and that macroeconomic easing or structural demand needs to emerge.
3. Technical analysis indicates Bitcoin is in a bear market consolidation phase. A break above $69,500-$70,000 resistance could trigger a rebound; otherwise, prices may test the support zone at $59,900-$60,000.

#我在Gate广场过新年 The crypto market evaporated hundreds of billions of dollars! How powerful is Trump's "Iran card"?
It dropped again. When I opened the trading app today, I guess many people felt a chill. Bitcoin fell below $65,000, Ethereum also lost the $1,900 mark, and other coins are in a sea of red, with Solana dropping over 9%.
Coinglass shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network's futures contracts liquidated $465 million, taking 136,700 traders along for the ride. Some jokingly say, this isn't just a dive, it's a "jump off a building."
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporated over $100 billion in a single day. The main culprits are those familiar two: geopolitical tensions and tariffs.
Foreign media reports that Trump may take action against Iran in the coming days. It is said he has already told advisors he favors a "preliminary strike" first, with larger actions possible if that doesn't work. Once this news broke, market nerves immediately tightened.
Meanwhile, U.S. tariff policies are also causing panic. The Supreme Court recently ruled that Trump's previous large-scale tariffs were illegal, and Trump quickly announced a new move—imposing a 15% import tariff on global goods for 150 days. This angered the EU, which held an emergency meeting to assess the situation and may even suspend trade agreements with the U.S.
India, which was planning to send a delegation to Washington for trade talks, has also temporarily postponed.
With the macro environment in such chaos, risk assets are naturally the first to suffer. U.S. stock index futures are also falling, with Nasdaq futures down nearly 1%.
Some analysts say the market is very fragile right now, and everyone is watching the $60,000 support level closely. If $65,000 can't hold, then $60,000 will really come into view. On the upside, it needs to reach $70,000 to reverse the current pessimism.
Thinking back to November last year when Trump just won the election, the market was euphoric, expecting loose policies to come, and Bitcoin surged to a record high of $126,000. Who would have thought that just a few months later, the scene changed dramatically? From the high point, the entire crypto market's value has evaporated over $2 trillion. Truly, as the saying goes: the night in the crypto world is especially long.
Hope everyone’s positions are still safe tomorrow morning.

#我在Gate广场过新年 Crypto market alarm at maximum panic!
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 9, remaining in the extreme fear zone of 0-10 for 12 consecutive days, plunging the market into a deep panic abyss! On one side, retail investors are panic selling and getting liquidated across the network; on the other side, smart money is quietly accumulating, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
The countdown to Trump's tariff nuclear bomb continues, while Vitalik continues to dump, and mysterious whales are heavily long at $67,908—are we facing doomsday or the night before sudden wealth?
Institutions fleeing vs. whales accumulating:
On-chain data exposes lies
- Miner capitulation signals confirmed: Major mining company Bitdeer has completed extreme liquidation, with its own BTC holdings dropping to zero, selling all newly mined Bitcoin; the net selling volume of miners across the network reaches 2180 coins/day, the highest since October 2024, miners selling coins to pay electricity bills—are we at a historic bottom or a prelude to collapse?
- Contrarian whale attack: Address pension-usdt.eth reopens long positions, heavily betting on BTC rising at an average price of $67,908, with a single buy-in exceeding 1200 coins, equivalent to $815 million; adding to positions amid extreme panic—is this foresight or moths to the flame?
Policy nuclear bomb countdown: 24 hours
Trump officially signs the tariff upgrade order, with global import tariffs soaring from 10% to 15%, effective from 00:01 on February 24!
Expectations of tightening global liquidity heat up, US stock volatility jumps 32%, and the crypto market is unlikely to escape the impact.
The Middle East situation adds new variables, with fierce White House hawk-dove battles, rising geopolitical risk premiums, and the ultimate test for BTC as digital gold narrative.
On-chain dark battles: whales awakening, popular tokens crashing
- Solana whale activity: A dormant address for 5 months withdrew 50,000 SOL from exchanges and immediately staked them, with a market cap of about $10.8 million—big moves in the ecosystem coming?
- PUMP bloodbath: whales sold 3.75 billion PUMP tokens at an average price of $0.00214, losing $6.98 million; project team simultaneously sold 4.96 billion tokens, cashing out over $10.5 million, completely collapsing the fund.
- Vitalik continues to dump: sold 7,386 ETH this month, another 428.57 ETH today for 850,200 GHO, totaling about $15.51 million in realized gains, ETH support below is under severe pressure.
Data bombs: $70,000 becomes a graveyard for longs and shorts
- Liquidation storm warning: BTC holding steady at $70,000 will instantly trigger $791 million in short liquidations, epic short squeeze imminent; in the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $84.459 million, with longs at $30.311 million and shorts at $54.147 million.
- Abnormal capital flow: In the past 7 days, exchanges net inflow of 3104 BTC and 5145 ETH, totaling $472 million—whales depositing coins in preparation—is this a dump or a pump?
- Downside risk warning: Quantitative models show a 73% probability that BTC will reach $55,000 within the year, indicating extreme market conditions are still ongoing.
Market glimmers: regulatory and ecological positive signals
- Ripple major statement: CEO states that the CLARITY Act has a 90% chance of passing Congress this week, and regulatory implementation could trigger XRP market rally.
- Aave V4 upgrade: V3 and V4 will run in parallel for a long time, with gradually relaxed limits, ushering in a new era for DeFi giants.