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What signals are these?~
$600 million worth of OpenAI shares, searching for buyers—no deals made~
The same amount last year was snapped up within days~
This comparison clearly shows that: AI money is cooling off~
It’s not that OpenAI has a problem.
It’s that smart money is starting to do the math—
Spending hundreds of millions of dollars to buy shares in a company that can’t go public, can’t exit, and is priced based on "believing in the future," in 2026 when interest rates are still high and the market is beginning to shake, the risk-reward ratio of this deal has quietly flipped~
What were th

AI and crypto company Genius Group disclosed on Tuesday that they liquidated all their BTC holdings in Q1 to pay off debts. It’s not a strategic rebalancing, not taking profits and exiting, but rather a tightening of the funding chain—selling the most liquid assets possible.
In a bull market, everyone is a “long-term holder.”
When the creditors come knocking, faith has a price.
The signal behind this:
As the interest rate hike cycle prolongs and financing costs remain high, those “crypto + AI” companies supported by low-interest environments are seeing their balance sheets start to cra

Iran announces: Ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must settle in cryptocurrency or RMB~
On the surface, it's a fee announcement, but in essence, it's a bullet shot at the oil dollar system~
The logic of the petrodollar has not changed since 1974: to buy oil globally, you must first buy dollars. This rule allows the U.S. to print money infinitely and borrow endlessly because the whole world is helping it absorb liquidity~
Now, this premise is being openly challenged by a country holding a strategic choke point for the first time~
The bigger issue isn't Iran, but those following along—

The Strait of Hormuz, the global supermarket begins to raise prices—
It's not just oil prices going up~
Many people haven't realized the importance of this strait: 20%–25% of global shipping of oil and about 33% of fertilizer shipments pass through Hormuz.
What does a fertilizer supply cutoff mean?
It means that what is planted this year may yield less next year~
The supply chain has already started to activate, and every link is increasing prices:
Oil prices rise → Natural gas prices rise → Heating, electricity, and transportation costs all increase~
Fertilizer shortage → Agricultural costs s

Trump has ridden the tiger—
He can't get off, and doesn't want to~
This war was never his move from the start; Israel set up the board, then asked him to make a move. Now that the pieces are down, the cost of retreating is greater than continuing to play~
What does retreat mean?
Zeroing out Middle East influence, re-aligning oil-producing countries, shaking the dollar-oil system—this isn't just losing a war; it's losing the entire Middle East order established by the U.S. after World War II. The British Empire was once gradually transformed from the "Sun Never Sets" to "No Longer in Control"—

Uncontrollable war,
Unclear exit strategies,
Blocked oil choke points —
What Trump faces is not just a Middle East conflict,
But an unsolvable equation:
To withdraw, how to maintain the petrodollar dominance?
To stay, how to explain soldier casualties to voters?
#SPX

Week five of the war,
A leader delivers a speech to the nation during prime time,
It should have been a summary and conclusion,
But this speech feels more like a war mobilization,
Not a victory declaration~
#霍尔木兹 # Gold #原油 # Geopolitical Risks​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ #IranWar​

So, what did Trump talk about again today?
Oil prices continue to rise~

After watching Buffett's interview, what I see is a top-tier hunter remaining still when comparing to "technical charts"—
Don't be fooled; don't think Buffett doesn't look at technical analysis. Technical analysis is a fundamental skill embedded in his bones.
Levels vs. Trends: Technical charts can hardly tell you the exact time and price point tomorrow, but they can clearly outline the boundaries of medium- to long-term trends.
Now, Old Man Buffett is holding epic cash flows, ready to sell Apple at a moment's notice. Why? Because from the super-long cycle of Dow Theory, the current slope of t

The current market is like a stubborn young punk who won't turn back until they hit the wall.
They have to wait for that data "nuclear bomb" to drop.
Only then will they realize what true respect is—
blowing everything up in chaos.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol stated on March 16 that
Current supply losses have surpassed those during the 1973 oil crisis~
Restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for stabilizing the oil market~
What does 1973 mean?
That was the year when gas stations in Europe and North America were lined up for miles, factories shut down, and Western economies collectively bowed.
This time, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked since February 28, with 20 million barrels of crude oil unable to pass daily, accounting for over 20% of global demand

Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian stated: "There have been no negotiations whatsoever. Reports about negotiations are false. Trust between both sides is zero."
"We are waiting for them (the U.S. military), and hope they do not make such a mistake."

Oracle this morning at 6 a.m. laid off 20,000 to 30,000 employees with a single email—
No HR conversations, no prior notice, no direct manager communication. Just an email signed "Oracle Leadership" telling you: Today is your last working day, system access has been revoked—
This may be the largest layoff in Oracle’s history, accounting for 18% of its 162,000 global employees—
But the most absurd part is: Oracle’s net profit skyrocketed 95% last quarter to $6.1 billion. This isn’t a struggling company cutting costs to survive—this is a record-breaking profit company, betting heavily on AI—
Ora

Today is April Fools' Day, a gentle reminder: for every major news you see today, first put a question mark~
Trump announces a ceasefire? Iran agrees to negotiations? Master Bao says there will be rate cuts? Hormuz reopens? — All these news today, trustworthiness is cut in half~

Trump is facing not a tactical choice but a political arithmetic problem—
Time is not on his side. In the next 1-2 weeks, a decision must be made—two paths lie ahead, with no third option—
Proceed: continue fighting, risk escalation, increased casualties, soaring oil prices, mounting inflation bills. Even if he wins in the end, the U.S. economy might have already lost—
Retreat: the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, political reputation damaged, allies' trust eroded. But—midterm elections are still half a year away. Half a year is enough for someone skilled in narrative reconstruction—
This i

Trump's patience with the Iran war is visibly running out—
anger is showing, helplessness is increasing, and the war may end within two or three weeks—these signals point to one conclusion: the United States is looking for a dignified way to step down, regardless of whether Hormuz opens or not—
—abandoning the key goal of reopening Hormuz?
This is the most important word in this message: abandon. After so much effort, so much spent, and so many lives lost, the Strait is still blocked—are we just going to withdraw?
This isn't a victory; at best, it's a stop-loss—
The most difficult th

Tomorrow will be April, and 25% of 2026 has passed~
A new monthly chart is here~