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Bitcoin lost 20% in 3 months and shows negative YoY performance. But the drawdown itself doesn't define the regime. Q1 2026 becomes the verdict.
Which side are you positioning for?
Full RSI regime analysis in my latest brief 👇

☕️ Morning Brief #68
Short-Term Holder Market Enters Rare Pressure Balance Phase.

Short-term holder Net Pressure has dropped into the bottom 5% of its distribution. Price is trading below STH Realized Price, leading to equalization of buying and selling pressure.

The market is flooded with noise from experts, KOLs, and especially their PR machines. Stack cash for the next accumulation phase and use this time to learn the fundamentals.

A comprehensive on-chain education series many of you have requested.
The series consists of 8 parts covering the fundamentals of on-chain analysis. It will help you understand what core on-chain metrics actually mean and how to interpret them correctly.
While Bitcoin is pulling back, invest in yourself and your knowledge.

☕️Adler AM: Short-Term Holders Underwater, Sentiment Confirms Market Weakness
Sentiment and on-chain structure are synchronously pointing to market weakness. Short-term holders are underwater, and all key nearby support levels have turned into resistance.
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BTC is entering a window for a Santa rally: the Regime Score is bullish but not overheated. Short liquidations are reinforcing the asymmetry in favor of buyers.
☕️Morning Brief #66 👇

LTH distribution is complete, the z-score has fallen to -1.90. ETFs posted $288M in weekly outflows, derivatives remain overheated and risk is now skewed against longs. The key question: who is selling here?
Full breakdown in the report. 👇

The first early signal of the end of the bull market was published on Substack on November 2. Confirmation of the transition into a bearish phase was released on November 14: If you want to regularly receive up-to-date BTC data, subscribe at Every ☕️morning, five times a week, a short and structured brief will be delivered to your inbox.
If you want to go deeper into the analysis, build models independently, understand the Fed’s rhetoric, identify the current market regime (Risk-ON/OFF), work with on-chain data and receive a full weekly report on the BTC market, you should subscribe to my Su

This algorithm has a low level of maturity and distorts my viewpoint by about 90%. The conclusion is that relying on AI is highly dangerous.

Morning market sentiment is positive on the back of November inflation data, but the release warrants caution. Data collection resumed only in mid-November following the end of the government shutdown. October data were not collected, leaving monthly growth rates unavailable.
While markets are responding to YoY figures, the lack of MoM data weakens the signal’s reliability as a trigger.

☕️Morning Brief #65
Miner Economics Under Pressure, Indices in Stress Zone
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As the leading cryptocurrency declines, composite miner financial health indices remain near stress zones.

Sharp one-day drops in Bitcoin’s estimated hashrate have been recorded.
2025-12-14: 1,053 → 943 EH/s → Δ = −110.5 EH/s (−10.5% d/d)
2025-12-12: 1,179 → 1,068 EH/s → Δ = −110.5 EH/s (−9.4% d/d)
2025-12-09: 1,098 → 957 EH/s → Δ = −141.0 EH/s (−12.8% d/d)
This is based on network metrics. The causes cited in the press (shutdowns/closure of farms in Xinjiang) require separate external confirmation, these cannot be proven from the metrics alone.

☕️Morning Brief #60
Short-Term Holder Capitulation: SOPR Signals Local Stress
The Bitcoin market is in a correction phase with a 30% drawdown from the all-time high. Two on-chain indicators: STH SOPR and P/L Block point to loss realization by participants and deteriorating market sentiment.

Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis | W2 Dec 2025
4-year cycles are dead is the myth of the season. They’re not - they just need to be read via market regimes and capital flows, not the calendar.
This issue: an updated Halving Macro Bull/Bear Phase (macro+micro), a reality check on the consolidation scenario, and the key on-chain tells (CDD, LTH Cash Extraction, Net Capital Flow) to answer one question: are we seeing a top-style unload, or a controlled LTH distribution?
Closing with a practical playbook for next week risk, edge, and the conditions that would confirm a regime change.