Ikeda Nobuo's book "The Lost Two Decades—The True Cause of Japan's Long-Term Economic Stagnation" discusses the period known as Japan's lost two decades, roughly from 1989 to 2009, during which Japan's economic growth remained stagnant. In fact, this stagnation continued until around 2019 and is often referred to as "The Lost Three Decades." This article is a reading note on that book, summarizing the main reasons for Japan's economic stagnation discussed in the text. Studying the successes and failures of Japan's economic and financial policies can also provide valuable lessons for our policy-making. The above chart shows Japan's annual GDP from 1955 to June 2025. It can be seen that during "The Lost Three Decades," the curve was flat, with almost no growth and even some decline. After 2020, due to large-scale stimulus policies and increased external demand from countries like China and the US, the economy showed significant improvement. Meanwhile, Japan's real estate market also surged sharply starting in 2020. The main reasons for Japan's 30-year economic stagnation can be summarized as follows: 1. The Plaza Accord and financial liberalization led to capital market and real estate bubbles. The direct cause of Japan's bubble economy was the Plaza Accord of September 1985. After the accord, the yen appreciated sharply, from 240 yen per US dollar to 150 yen per US dollar. To hedge against the "appreciation depression," Japan drastically lowered its statutory interest rates to historic lows. Almost simultaneously, Japan promoted financial liberalization, allowing banks and securities firms to operate jointly, which led to a significant flow of funds into the stock market. As for the real estate market, Japanese property prices in the 1980s only rose and did not fall, creating a...

“Prosperity in life depends on the Kondratiev wave,” this is the classic assertion by the late economist Professor Zhou Jintao. Its core meaning is that personal wealth accumulation entirely depends on the opportunities brought by economic cycle movements. Although the word “entirely” may seem somewhat absolute, it illustrates the significant influence of economic cycles on our wealth accumulation. In a speech in 2016, Professor Zhou pointed out that at that time, the Kondratiev cycle was at a turning point from recession to depression, and the next ten years would be a period of depression (based on that speech’s judgment, this Kondratiev cycle entered the recession phase around 2008-2009, reaching the cycle bottom around 2030). Looking back now, this prophecy has been validated by reality.
1. Personal Insights on Economic Cycles
When I was young, I often heard elders say, “Thirty years east of the river, thirty years west of the river,” lamenting the changes in the world and the flow of fate. At that time, I didn’t understand its meaning. Now, with some knowledge of economic cycles and having personally experienced the cycles, I suddenly realize—this proverb actually contains the great wisdom of “economic cycles.” Sixty years is exactly a complete “Kondratiev cycle”!
For myself, over the past decade or so after starting work, the most tangible experience has been the real estate cycle. The real estate cycle usually lasts more than 20 years (even nearly 30 years, with about 20 years of upward movement and about 10 years of downward movement). China’s housing reform began in 1998, with housing prices rising to a peak in 2016. Afterward, there was a high-level consolidation for two or three years, followed by an overall downward trend. The average age for ordinary people to purchase their first home is between 25-30 years old. As someone born in the early 1980s, I consider myself quite fortunate to have caught the wave of China’s housing market.

The first type is like when we invest in a certain company; profits can bring us dividends, and what we earn is the dividend income. In mature capital markets, in the long run, the main driver of stock price growth comes from accumulated dividends. The second type is also the most common money, competing with other investors. For example, in the Bitcoin market, at any price point, there are both bears and bulls; different people's perceptions lead to buying and selling. During a bull market, you often hear people ask, “Everyone is making money, who is losing?” During a bear market, people ask, “Everyone is losing money, who is taking the money?” Someone makes money, someone loses money. In this game market, the bull market eats pork and has a fat year, while the bear market pays for the bull market. If you lose money, it’s naturally your opponent who earned it. The third type is money released by central banks through monetary policy. This is the most significant money, seemingly unrelated to ordinary people, but in fact, it is closely related to whether each of us can make money. Many modern successful people like to talk about various principles after making money; in fact, it’s just that the era and trends have provided the platform. Just like the Bitcoin bull market, a bunch of experts shine on stage, telling stories of sudden wealth; nothing is the same outside the bull market. There’s a joke about three successful people in an elevator: one is doing push-ups wildly, another is running in place, and the third is doing a handstand. When the elevator reaches the top floor, someone asks how they got there. The first says, “I relied on doing push-ups.” The second says, “I relied on running in place.” The third says, “I relied on doing a handstand.” How did they get there? Of course, by elevator. In the financial market, the central bank’s monetary policy is like the elevator.

Judging stocks that are about to surge is both easy and difficult. For example: after news about the Beijing Stock Exchange came out, stocks in related concept sectors soared. Several years ago, when the news about the Millennium Plan for Xiong'an was released, the Xiong'an sector also experienced a rally. The hard part is that most people find it very difficult to do so.
When good news appears, it often triggers a wave of profit-driven capital pushing prices higher. Psychologically: no one believes they will be the last to buy in; everyone feels there will still be slow responders who will buy in, until the subsequent funds are exhausted, and the market suddenly turns downward.
In fact, if one could predict the future and determine the exact content of good news before it is announced, making money would be very easy. In reality, this is very difficult; having such foresight might be easier with lottery tickets, which require small investments but offer high multipliers, or by gambling at a casino with bets on big or small, which can more easily double your money repeatedly in the short term.
Some so-called "experts" who claim to know the subsequent policies and news are most likely relying on insider information. Insider trading is illegal; aside from the risk of being exploited by upstream traders, going to jail to make money is not worth it.
So, without insider information, how can we find stocks that will soon have good news?
First, it’s essential to understand what the stock market mainly speculates on. Stock trading is about speculation on expectations; exceeding expectations requires strong information analysis skills. The same piece of news can be interpreted in multiple ways, and different people think differently. It requires information processing ability to identify others' interpretations.

Before getting back on track, I probably won't be discussing such extensive topics for a long time.
I deeply understand the saying "Everyone is shaped by their era," and I personally am very grateful that Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin. It changed my original life trajectory and indeed gave me a certain degree of freedom, though I also paid a considerable price. Thank you to my friends in the crypto circle for their help and support along the way. Recently in Singapore, I often reminisce about our past crypto community, missing the days when I scrimped and saved to participate in various trading competitions, winning prizes like iPad and iPhone, and immediately selling them to buy coins.
I remember winning first place in the BTCC Litecoin trading competition in 2015, and being invited to Shanghai to meet Litecoin founder Charlie and discuss Bitcoin and competing coins. Ah, that was also my first time in Shanghai, fortunate to have a lively chat with BTCC boss Bobby about the future development of the blockchain industry. That feeling back then was truly hard to find again—an emotion unrelated to money. It's hard to articulate, but it's worth reminiscing.
I vaguely recall that later I chose a project related to blockchain, aiming to develop blockchain mutual aid insurance (of course, not issuing tokens, with a concept similar to Alipay's Huabei, but at that time, no one understood it, and I didn't have much technical background).
Now, perhaps many new friends believe because they've seen. But I know that most old friends believe because they trust and see.
In virtual currency

Every investment is actually important, and the most important investment varies from person to person. For oneself, self-improvement should be the most important investment. For those who value family, investing in children is the most important. Personally, I believe that finding the right partner is the most important investment. The best partner should be complementary, requiring mutual appreciation and walking hand in hand. Having a consistent outlook on life and wealth, and a marriage that is well-matched in social and economic status, is often equivalent to a merger of two listed companies. However, in real life, perfection is hard to achieve, and a strong alliance is not always necessary. In marriage, family harmony is the top priority; if the family is not harmonious, divorce can lead to assets being halved. To achieve family harmony, mutual trust is needed. You cannot form a family with someone who is habitual in lying or has character issues, nor with women who are too open. The modern rates of infidelity and divorce are very high; some things happen only zero or countless times. Marriages with equal conditions do not require too much risk control, but for those with unequal conditions, you can learn from entrepreneurs like Liu Qiangdong to implement certain risk controls, such as prenuptial property agreements. For traders involved in stocks and cryptocurrencies, when things go smoothly, asset appreciation can be rapid. If you are not very confident in your partner, you might also consider using a prenuptial agreement. However, whether it’s property notarization, prenuptial agreements, or putting important assets in parents’ names, the other party is not naive and can sense these actions clearly. Although legally protected contracts are the best way to maintain trust, due to China’s national conditions, these actions can hurt feelings and affect trust.

Many traditional stock investors find it difficult to adapt when entering the crypto world, not knowing how to invest. The core issue is a lack of understanding of the blockchain industry. The phrase "a billion-dollar market cap mainly relies on consensus" may be something they've heard, but they still don't understand it. There are many projects involving mobile mining, but such projects often have small market caps. It's simple: a billion-dollar market cap mainly depends on the number of people who believe it will keep rising. These people will naturally lock in funds, creating a positive feedback loop. The more funds locked in, the scarcer it becomes. As the price rises, more people enter the market. Currently, the strongest consensus is Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum. In the future, many tokens with stories may emerge, but most are garbage. Most altcoins are garbage—this is a consensus among veteran players. New players are entering every year, and it's unlikely that in any given year, the influx of new players will surpass the total number of existing veteran players. Therefore, this "consensus" will persist long-term. Based on this, just like the solidification of social classes, it becomes even harder for those from humble backgrounds to rise. $LINK $CAKE $DUSK

“History will reward those who understand both risk and process. ‘One Fish Four Eats’ is not gambling, but a precise capture of market rhythm.”
Preface
This article is the “Practical Operation” section. I break down the One Fish Four Eats into four executable steps and provide the risk control and technical prerequisites for each step. Suitable for readers with some trading experience who can accept high risk and high complexity operations.
1. Overall Strategy Framework (Four Stages)
1. Prediction and Signal Confirmation (Before Entry)
2. Attack During De-anchoring Phase (Short USDT / Sell)
3. Hedging and Risk Off-sets (Long / Hedge BTC or other safe-haven assets)
4. Re-anchoring and Harvesting (Buy back USDT / Close BTC position)
Each stage must have clear trigger conditions and exit rules.
2. Stage Details and Practical Tips
(1) Prediction and Signal Confirmation Observation: C2C quote fluctuations, perpetual discount, on-chain large outputs, news from zf, exchange announcements. Tools: Market alert, on-chain transfer monitoring (self-built or third-party), exchange depth monitoring. Trigger: Any two anomalies simultaneously, can enter observation mode. Three or more concurrent anomalies, then enter preparation phase.
(2) De-anchoring Phase: Short USDT / Sell spot to short: If USDT/USD futures/perpetuals are available, use them. If direct shorting is not possible, sell USDT to merchants or exchange for more stable assets like BTC. Risk control points: Slippage on transactions, whether the exchange will suspend trading.

“Decoupling is not about price fluctuations, but the collapse of the trust mechanism.”
Decoupling is not an isolated event; it is a trigger for chain reactions—from confidence, to the market, and then to liquidity.
Decoupling is not a momentary change in numbers but the result of a series of mechanism failures. To assess systemic risk, one must understand the contagion mechanism: market sentiment → liquidity rupture → liquidation cycle → platform bank runs.
1. Typical triggers of decoupling (case-based understanding) On-chain large transfers: major holders or custodial addresses suddenly transfer large amounts of USDT, triggering sell-offs. Exchange suspends withdrawals: causing panic price gaps in the secondary market. Audits/credit events: third-party reputation reports or downgrades. Macro regulatory actions or policy rumors.
These initial events are not rare; the key is how the market amplifies them.
2. Chain reaction amplification: from individuals to the system
1. Small-scale sell-offs → slight price dips → arbitrage bots/market makers intervene.
2. If liquidity is drained (some exchanges or pools cannot replenish orders in time), the price decline accelerates.
3. Highly leveraged accounts are liquidated → forced sale of BTC/other assets → further price suppression → triggering more liquidations.
4. If platform funding is tight or restricted by regulators, withdrawals are paused, ultimately leading to a bank run.
Therefore, decoupling and the leveraged ecosystem are naturally resonant.
3. Vulnerable positions of platforms and trading pairs
• USDT-USD perpetual/spot: insufficient depth

Based on recent regulatory signals, I discussed some possible scenarios with old friends in the group and found that some of these people, after making a little money, started to act tough—more aggressive than leverage—completely different from the "bro, do me a favor" attitude back in the day. Based on this, I wrote a series of articles, a total of five. They are:
Volume One: The Illusion of Stablecoins
1. "The USDT in your hand might not be dollars, but a consensus scam"
2. "Stablecoins are becoming unstable: The truth 99% of users ignore"
Volume Two: Systemic Risks of De-pegging
3. "USDT De-pegging Countdown: The five minutes before the storm hits, you must know"
4. "A single de-pegging can destroy the entire market: A review of the most realistic black swan chain collapses"
Volume Three: One Fish Four Eat Strategy
5. "One Fish Four Eat: The cruelest and most profitable scam model in the crypto world (Operational Breakdown)"
6. "Experts only do one thing: Using 'De-pegging → Re-anchoring' to earn four rounds of profit"
Volume Four: Offshore Arbitrage
7. "Overseas identity = a weapon for huge profits: A full analysis of arbitrage channels unseen domestically"
8. "When USDT de-pegs, how do overseas players precisely make money?"
Volume Five: Iron Barred Line
9. "Retail investors lose money, practitioners go to jail: The five real 'iron bars' in the crypto world"
10. "Why are you losing money trading crypto, while they might be breaking the law? The truth about industry boundaries"
Volume One
"Stablecoins are not currency, but a promise of value. Once the promise loosens,

In the past, the meme coin market was highly volatile, with BTC following a four-year cycle, but overall it experienced a spiral upward trend. Some altcoins yielded excess returns, and during a bull market, some could achieve ten-thousand-fold gains, allowing ordinary people to reverse their fortunes and change their destiny. Although regulators prohibit trading, and there are risks of theft and scams, and friends and family may not understand, it indeed provided a quick way to achieve wealth redistribution. I do not deny that history—some might even say—meme coins once were a machine that "amplified risk, amplified luck, and increased the possibility of social mobility." The problem is: the fuel for this machine has changed, the track has changed, and the rules have changed. If you still use the old "cyclical faith" to interpret the current situation, you are likely to pay tuition in new risks. 1) The previous rapid rise relied on "few participants, small scale, and regulatory gaps." I believe the core was the small number of participants and small scale, which made large surges easier. Over the years, various black and gray industries have been caught, exposing that the main buyers back then were these people. As these players face long-arm jurisdiction, they are also starting to feel the pressure internally. Many people are reluctant to admit: that kind of "skyrocketing with a gentle push" market back then was fundamentally related to the participant structure, sources of funds, and regulatory vacuum. Look, the world back then was rough: exchange rules were crude, arbitrage trading was rough, and information gaps were huge. The channels for capital inflows and outflows were crude, and regulation was not as "systematic." Ordinary people were few; only a few dared to jump in. Naturally, volatility was high, and when prices rose, it felt like there was no brake. Therefore, stories of "ordinary people reversing their fortunes" were particularly common—not because it was more fair, but because it was wilder, more unstable, more likely to produce miracles, and easier to