# PUMp

#PUMP As of 12:00 on January 2, 2026 (UTC+8), the PUMP short-term rebound window is 1-3 trading days, with a medium-term mainly characterized by oscillation and a long-term outlook dependent on platform fundamentals and sentiment recovery in the Memecoin sector; core conclusion: no strong reversal drivers, after the rebound, it returns to weakness.
1. Short-term trend (1-7 days)
- Baseline scenario (probability 60%): Rebound to $0.002200 resistance encounters resistance, and within 1-3 days, it falls back to the $0.001909-$0.0020 range for oscillation, triggering an alert to turn bearish.
- Op

#PUMP As of 2025-12-28 (based on Jintou data, on-chain and public opinion monitoring), the short-term (72 hours) pump token flash crash probability is approximately 70%, and the medium-term (3 months) risk of a major collapse is about 90%, leaning towards bearishness. The core risks are quantifiable and irreversible.
1. Probability assessment and key basis
1. Short-term flash crash (70%)
- Whale control: The top 10 wallets hold about 70%-75% of the circulating supply. Large coordinated sell-offs can instantly break through buy orders.
- Liquidity fragility: Platform trading volume has fallen o

#PUMP As of December 28, 2025, 14:00, the probability of PUMP tokens crashing and dropping is extremely high (≥70%), indicating a "high risk, high vulnerability" state. Below are the core judgments and trigger conditions:
1. Core Trigger Factors for Crash and Drop (by risk weight)
1. Legal and Compliance Crash (Weight 40%): Collective lawsuits expanding, accusing suspected illegal securities issuance, insider trading, and liquidity manipulation, involving related parties such as Solana Labs. If the court finds violations, platform revenue (source of buyback funds) or the platform itself may co

#PUMP PUMP Short-term difficulty in sustaining upward movement, medium-term rebound relies on strong catalysts, long-term requires breakthroughs in ecosystem and regulation (as of 2025-12-27 07:40, price approximately $0.001801, down 0.4% in 24h, down 10.39% in 7D, down 34.62% in 30D).
1. Core Judgments and Key Evidence
- Short-term (1-2 weeks): Bearish dominance, rebounds are hard to sustain. Large whales continue to sell off (on December 23, there was a large transfer of $7.57 million), buybacks (about $1 million daily) cannot offset selling pressure; technical indicators show MACD bearish,

#PUMP As of 2025-12-28 18:57 (UTC+8), PUMP's technical outlook leans towards short-term bearishness, with medium-term remaining weak; only a very short-term oversold rebound possibility exists, with no clear reversal signals.
1. Key Technical Indicators Overview (Preliminary Conclusions)
- RSI(14)=30.39: Approaching oversold territory, weak rebound possible, but no clear buy signal.
- ADX(14)=45.71: Trend strength is relatively strong, downward direction, dominated by bears.
- MACD(12,26): Still below zero line, no golden cross, bearish momentum not exhausted.
- Williams %R=-89.28: Oversold, s

#PUMP PUMP Short-term (1–3 days) is mainly bearish, with only a weak rebound possible after oversold conditions, unlikely to change the downward trend; key resistance at **$0.0020**, strong support at **$0.00173**, losing support will accelerate the decline. Current price (2025-12-27 20:30) is approximately **$0.00181**, with a slight intraday increase but insufficient volume.
Core technical indicators (4-hour/daily chart, as of December 27)
1. Trend and Moving Averages: Price remains below the 20/50/200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish alignment; breaking below key support **$0.0025

#PUMP As of December 30, 2025, recent major negative news for PUMP (Pump.fun) has focused on large whale sell-offs, escalating regulatory lawsuits, and deteriorating fundamentals. Below is a structured summary of key information:
🚨 Core Negative News (December Update)
1. Whale Liquidation Sell-off (December 23): Whale wallet 3QB9kH transferred 3.8 billion PUMP (cost approximately $19.53 million, average price $0.00513) to FalconX for liquidation, realizing about $7.3 million, with a loss exceeding $12 million (about 62%), triggering market panic selling, with prices rapidly dropping and appro

#PUMP Based on comprehensive Jintian data calibration combined with on-chain, technical, and fundamental cross-verification, the probability of PUMP experiencing a sharp decline (single-day ≥10%) in the next 7 days is about 70%, with a short-term (24–48 hours) rapid drop probability of approximately 55%; if key support levels are breached and negative news ferment, this probability could rise to 80%+.
1. Core Conclusions and Key Thresholds
- Key Judgment: Currently in a strong downtrend, with buying power weak and selling pressure dominant; buybacks are unable to offset selling pressure.
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