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#原油小幅上涨 Gold and crude oil long and short battles intensify, where will the market go from here
Important reminder: this Thursday, US GDP data and PCE inflation data; Friday, US CPI data and PPI data; while paying close attention to these key points, even more important is the situation in Iran; currently, except for Trump, all parties are drawing K-line charts! As retail investors, our available information is limited
Yesterday, gold opened higher in the morning and rose, reaching a high of around 4857/4858 before facing resistance and pulling back, with a short-term decline to around 4788 before rebounding. At midday, gold rebounded to around 4844 but faced resistance again, then shifted to oscillate downward. The decline continued during European and US trading hours, with the lowest dipping near 4700 in the early morning, and the daily line finally closing with a long upper shadow on a bearish candle.
Overall, gold showed a pattern of rising sharply and then falling back on Wednesday, closing with a bearish daily line, unable to sustain the strong upward momentum in the morning. From the moving average system, the market’s bullish and bearish signals are intertwined: the 5-day moving average is beginning to turn downward, while the 10-day moving average remains upward, and the 20- and 30-day moving averages continue to extend downward. This technical pattern generally indicates that the short-term trend may continue to oscillate, without forming a clear directional trend.
For today’s strategy, excluding market news impacts, if prices want to further decline, there will be some rebounds to confirm resistance above; the short-term range is the high and low formed at the close, 4700-4735, with an early rebound from the 4700 support level, which is a short-term long opportunity. After a significant pullback and stabilization, the main focus remains on buying, with attention to the short-term resistance at 4800-4850.
Crude oil yesterday was initially affected by the temporary ceasefire news between the US and Iran, causing a sharp decline back to around 91, then fluctuated. However, during US trading hours, developments in US-Iran tensions, Israel attacking Lebanon, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a rebound, pushing prices above 97, but the daily line still closed with a large bearish candle. Today, crude oil continued to rebound after opening, with resistance near the 20-day moving average at around 98.4, which was the main resistance level expected for yesterday’s US oil rebound. Since the 20-day moving average has not been broken, it indicates that although there are risks from news developments, the temporary ceasefire still plays a short-term role in suppressing oil prices.
Today, continue to watch the strong support at 90; before it breaks, expect rebounds, but if it breaks, the price may gradually test 87–85. On the upside, the first resistance is around 98–100. Although crude oil fluctuates sharply, key support and resistance levels remain very important references. Participate at key levels, trade less, and observe more!
This article only describes potential future market trends and expresses personal opinions. It is not a basis for investment decisions and is for reference only! Investment involves risks; enter the market cautiously. Trading must be flexible according to market conditions, paying attention to reasonable position sizing, capital management, and risk control. No risk control means no trading; do not let trading get out of control!
Important reminder: this Thursday, U.S. GDP data and PCE inflation data; on Friday, U.S. CPI and PPI data. While these key indicators are closely watched, even more important is the situation in Iran. Currently, aside from Trump, all parties are drawing K-line charts! As retail investors, our access to information is limited.
Yesterday, gold opened higher in the morning and rose, reaching a high of around 4857/4858 before facing resistance and pulling back. In the short term, it declined to around 4788 and then rebounded. During midday, gold rebounded to around 4844 but faced resistance again, then shifted to a sideways downward trend. The decline continued during European and U.S. trading hours, with the lowest point near 4700 in the early morning, and the daily chart ultimately closed with a long upper shadow on the bearish candle.
Overall, gold showed a rally and pullback pattern on Wednesday, closing lower on the daily chart, unable to sustain the strong upward momentum seen in the morning. From the moving average system, the market shows mixed signals: the 5-day moving average is beginning to turn downward, the 10-day remains upward, while the 20-day and 30-day moving averages continue to slope downward. This technical pattern generally indicates that the short-term trend may continue to fluctuate without forming a clear directional trend.
For today’s strategy, excluding market news impacts, if prices want to move lower, there may be some rebounds to confirm resistance levels above. The short-term range is defined by the high and low points of 4700-4735 formed at the close. A dip back to the 4700 support level during the morning is a good opportunity for a short-term long position. Currently, after a significant pullback and stabilization, the main focus remains on buying, with attention to short-term resistance at 4800-4850.
Crude oil yesterday was initially affected by the temporary ceasefire news between the U.S. and Iran, causing a sharp decline to around 91, followed by some consolidation. However, during U.S. trading hours, developments in U.S.-Iran tensions, Israel attacking Lebanon, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a rebound, pushing prices above 97. Yet, the daily chart still shows a large bearish candle. After today’s open, crude oil continued to rebound, testing resistance near the 20-day moving average at around 98.4. This was also the main resistance level expected for yesterday’s rebound. Since the 20-day moving average has not been broken, it indicates that despite the news risks, the temporary ceasefire is still exerting short-term downward pressure on oil prices.
Today, focus remains on the strong support at 90. A rebound is still expected before any break below. A break below could gradually test levels around 87-85. On the upside, the first resistance is at 98-100. Although crude oil prices fluctuate significantly, key support and resistance levels remain very important references. Participate at key levels, and trade less but more carefully!
This article is only a personal interpretation of potential future market trends. It is not investment advice and should be used for reference only! Investing involves risks; please trade cautiously. Be flexible in response to market conditions, pay attention to proper position sizing, fund management, and risk control. No risk management, no trading; don’t let trading get out of control!