When will the US-Israel-Iran war end? A critical turning point may come at the end of April
The Middle East conflict has lasted for 33 days (since February 28, 2026). The military confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran has drawn global attention. When will this war finally end? Based on the current battlefield situation, the core demands of both sides, and referencing the historical experience of the Korean War’s “fighting while negotiating, using fighting to promote negotiations,” it is predicted that a large-scale conflict will see a ceasefire by the end of April, followed by a new normal of “ceasefire without peace,” similar to the long-term stalemate after the Korean War.
As of now, the US and Israel have carried out strikes against over 11,000 Iranian targets. Iran has launched multiple counterattacks, and both sides have sustained losses reaching a certain threshold.
The timing of the war’s end largely depends on whether the core demands of both sides are met. This closely aligns with the deadlock in the Korean War where “neither side could completely defeat the other,” and is also key to judging when a ceasefire might occur: the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s key nuclear facilities such as Natanz and Bushehr, as well as over 150 Iranian ships (including all “Jamaran” class frigates), essentially achieving the goal of “blocking Iran’s strategic deterrence.” Trump also publicly stated that military operations “are about to end.” Notably, the US’s attempt to rally European allies for joint military action against Iran was unsuccessful, with only symbolic support from the UK and France. Germany, Italy, and other core European countries explicitly refused to send troops, leaving the US to bear most of the operational costs and international pressure, further reducing its willingness to continue fighting.
Iran has launched multiple counterattacks through the “Real Commitment-4” operation, striking at least 17 US military bases in the Middle East, causing significant US losses, while effectively hitting Israeli territory, defending its sovereignty, and demonstrating resistance strength. Just as the Chinese and North Korean armies historically gained negotiation leverage through stubborn resistance, the current situation shows that further fighting is now largely meaningless. The principle that “only those who can fight can negotiate” still applies today.
Domestic pressure is also pushing both sides to end the war quickly and accelerate the ceasefire window at the end of April:
On the US side, a March 31 poll by Reuters and Ipsos shows that 66% of respondents want to end the Iran operation as soon as possible, and 60% oppose military strikes against Iran. Anti-war protests are sweeping across the US. Coupled with the failure to rally European allies, the US faces domestic pressure, election concerns, and economic backlash from high oil prices, leaving the government with little public support or economic foundation to sustain the conflict.
Iran, meanwhile, is suffering from economic collapse caused by war and sanctions, with the rial depreciating over 30 times in two months, and an annual inflation rate reaching 47.5% in February. US and Israeli attacks have resulted in over 1,300 civilian deaths and nearly 10,000 civilian facilities destroyed. The Iranian public’s “patriotic endurance” has reached a breaking point. This situation is quite similar to the US’s experience during the Korean War, when excessive war consumption and rising domestic anti-war sentiment led to seeking a ceasefire. The ongoing toll of war will ultimately push both sides back to the negotiation table.
The outcome at the end of April will not be peace, but a “de-escalation”: large-scale military conflict will end, transitioning into a long-term state of sanctions, proxy conflicts, and diplomatic tug-of-war; the Strait of Hormuz will resume basic navigation, and global energy and economic shocks will gradually ease.
The Middle East conflict has lasted for 33 days (since February 28, 2026). The military confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran has drawn global attention. When will this war finally end? Based on the current battlefield situation, the core demands of both sides, and referencing the historical experience of the Korean War’s “fighting while negotiating, using fighting to promote negotiations,” it is predicted that a large-scale conflict will see a ceasefire by the end of April, followed by a new normal of “ceasefire without peace,” similar to the long-term stalemate after the Korean War.
As of now, the US and Israel have carried out strikes against over 11,000 Iranian targets. Iran has launched multiple counterattacks, and both sides have sustained losses reaching a certain threshold.
The timing of the war’s end largely depends on whether the core demands of both sides are met. This closely aligns with the deadlock in the Korean War where “neither side could completely defeat the other,” and is also key to judging when a ceasefire might occur: the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s key nuclear facilities such as Natanz and Bushehr, as well as over 150 Iranian ships (including all “Jamaran” class frigates), essentially achieving the goal of “blocking Iran’s strategic deterrence.” Trump also publicly stated that military operations “are about to end.” Notably, the US’s attempt to rally European allies for joint military action against Iran was unsuccessful, with only symbolic support from the UK and France. Germany, Italy, and other core European countries explicitly refused to send troops, leaving the US to bear most of the operational costs and international pressure, further reducing its willingness to continue fighting.
Iran has launched multiple counterattacks through the “Real Commitment-4” operation, striking at least 17 US military bases in the Middle East, causing significant US losses, while effectively hitting Israeli territory, defending its sovereignty, and demonstrating resistance strength. Just as the Chinese and North Korean armies historically gained negotiation leverage through stubborn resistance, the current situation shows that further fighting is now largely meaningless. The principle that “only those who can fight can negotiate” still applies today.
Domestic pressure is also pushing both sides to end the war quickly and accelerate the ceasefire window at the end of April:
On the US side, a March 31 poll by Reuters and Ipsos shows that 66% of respondents want to end the Iran operation as soon as possible, and 60% oppose military strikes against Iran. Anti-war protests are sweeping across the US. Coupled with the failure to rally European allies, the US faces domestic pressure, election concerns, and economic backlash from high oil prices, leaving the government with little public support or economic foundation to sustain the conflict.
Iran, meanwhile, is suffering from economic collapse caused by war and sanctions, with the rial depreciating over 30 times in two months, and an annual inflation rate reaching 47.5% in February. US and Israeli attacks have resulted in over 1,300 civilian deaths and nearly 10,000 civilian facilities destroyed. The Iranian public’s “patriotic endurance” has reached a breaking point. This situation is quite similar to the US’s experience during the Korean War, when excessive war consumption and rising domestic anti-war sentiment led to seeking a ceasefire. The ongoing toll of war will ultimately push both sides back to the negotiation table.
The outcome at the end of April will not be peace, but a “de-escalation”: large-scale military conflict will end, transitioning into a long-term state of sanctions, proxy conflicts, and diplomatic tug-of-war; the Strait of Hormuz will resume basic navigation, and global energy and economic shocks will gradually ease.
