#我在Gate广场过新年 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

(1) Will there be another crash? Is it over?
BTC's monthly RSI has already fallen to the same level as early 2023, and around $60,000 is a key level where institutions and whales built positions in the previous cycle. This level is relatively safe and represents a temporary bottom. If the US strikes Iran, we may see a retest around $60,000.
The conclusion is: $60,000 is a temporary bottom, but a second dip is possible (around $60,000).

(2) Recent developments between the US and Iran
Currently, Iran's defense forces are on full combat readiness. The US is weighing limited initial military strikes against Iran to pressure Tehran into meeting its nuclear agreement requirements. This preliminary action aims to pressure Tehran into an agreement while avoiding full-scale attacks that could provoke large-scale retaliation. Disagreements still exist, but negotiations have made progress compared to the previous round. If authorized, the US is preparing for an initial strike that could occur within a few days, targeting a small number of military or government facilities.
Trump said he will decide on the next steps against Iran within 10 days. He later told reporters that a timetable would be finalized within about two weeks. We’ll see what happens in these two weeks.

(3) If the issues between Iran and the US are resolved, it is highly likely that BTC will fall into the $40,000-$50,000 range this year, possibly in Q4!
The PCE Price Index will be released tonight at 9:30.
Higher than expected is bearish; lower than expected is bullish.

Summary: The crypto market currently has no clear opportunities. It’s feasible for Bitcoin to drop to $50,000 by the end of the year. That’s when to start dollar-cost averaging into BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB. Switching to precious metals at this stage is a good choice!

This analysis is for reference only. Adults should be responsible for their own decisions. Investing involves risks. Please avoid impulsive risks and think independently.