The Federal Reserve has a 97.3% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in March

Federal Reserve March 2026 Interest Rate Decision Set to Be Revealed Soon, Powell's Stance Will Influence Bitcoin and Market Trends

The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18. Market attention will be on Powell's comments regarding inflation and future policy. Rising core PCE and oil price pressures limit the room for rate cuts, with only a 30% chance of easing this year. Political factors influencing Powell's tenure have led to noticeable market reactions, and risk assets as well as cryptocurrency prices are expected to be affected.

Whale Frenzy: $2 Billion Bitcoin Purchase as Market Watches Powell Speech for Potential BTC Breakthrough Above $75,000

Bitcoin price has fallen back to $74,000, with the market paying close attention to Fed Chair Powell's speech. Ongoing whale buying and ETF inflows demonstrate long-term demand, but short-term selling pressure should be watched carefully. Market sentiment is improving, and volatility could increase.

Ethereum Surges 25% in March, Institutional Buying and ETF Issuance Drive ETH Price Gains

Analysts point out that Ethereum has recently outperformed the S&P 500 index, though Federal Reserve policy decisions may impact its upward momentum. Despite prices remaining below last year's highs, institutional investors are actively increasing positions, demonstrating strengthened confidence in Ethereum, while the launch of new ETFs also reflects sustained market interest in digital assets and decentralized finance.

First Citizens Bank: Fed Dot Plot Suggests Only One Rate Cut Remaining for 2026

Gate News, on March 18, First Citizens Bank Head of Markets and Economic Research Phil Neuhart stated that investors and markets will pay special attention to the median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2026. Neuhart believes the median will continue to show only one rate cut for the remainder of this year. He pointed out that aside from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts, the tone of Powell's press conference will be the key variable swaying markets, particularly how he will address the contradiction between recent oil price surges and weak labor market data.

SMBC Nikko Securities: Bank of Japan March 30 Meeting Minutes Summary May Provide Clues for April Rate Hike

Gate News reports that on March 18, SMBC Nikko Securities economists stated that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is expected to avoid committing to a specific rate hike timeline at Thursday's press conference. However, if the summary of opinions from this meeting released on March 30 shows that policymakers support further tightening, investors may further digest the possibility of a rate hike in April. The market believes that a 1% policy rate (currently at 0.75%) still represents an accommodative level for the Bank of Japan, so even if Middle East tensions deteriorate and global risk-off sentiment intensifies, it is unlikely to prevent an April rate hike.

US SEC and CFTC Join Forces to Release Major Guidance, Clarifying the Securities vs. Non-Securities Boundary for Crypto Assets

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a 68-page document that systematically explains the applicability of federal securities laws to specific crypto assets, categorizing them into digital commodities, collectibles, utilities, stablecoins, and digital securities. The SEC emphasized that crypto assets are not necessarily securities and must be determined based on the definition of "investment contracts," while coordinating regulatory oversight with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to establish clear market standards.