BlockBeats News, February 20 — According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter reveal that Trump is weighing a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to pressure it into agreeing to a nuclear deal. This strike plan, if authorized, could be implemented within days and would target a few military or government facilities. If Iran continues to refuse Trump’s demand to cease uranium enrichment activities, the United States will launch a large-scale attack on the regime’s facilities — potentially aiming to overthrow the Tehran government.
After weeks of deliberation, it remains unclear how seriously Trump is considering this plan, though senior aides have repeatedly presented it to him. U.S. officials say recent discussions have focused more on larger-scale strikes, but Trump has not yet decided to order any attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn that such strikes could provoke Iranian retaliation, potentially dragging the U.S. into a broader Middle East war and endangering regional allies.
Additionally, market sources indicate that Iran, in a letter to the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members, stated, “If attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of hostile forces in the region will be considered legitimate targets within Iran’s defensive response framework.” Trump’s remarks suggest “a real risk of military aggression.” Iran does not seek escalation or war and would not initiate conflict first.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before the end of February has risen to 26%, the probability before March 15 to 52%, and the probability before the end of March to 60%.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
The two major parties in the United States are pushing a bill to curb "insider trading in prediction markets," with fines up to twice the profits gained.
U.S. lawmakers have introduced the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act," which aims to prohibit government officials from using non-public information to place bets in prediction markets and requires the reporting of bets exceeding $250. The bill broadly defines insider information, with violations facing penalties of up to double the profits gained. This legislation reflects an increase in U.S. regulation of prediction markets.
MarketWhisper54m ago
Cathie Wood's ARK taps Kalshi data to help make investment calls
Tech-focused asset manager ARK Invest said it will start using Kalshi’s prediction market data to improve how it makes its investment decisions, one of the latest cases demonstrating the broader value of prediction market data beyond trading.
According to a statement from Kalshi, ARK will use predi
Cointelegraph1h ago
Polymarket adds a new prediction event: When will the Trump administration terminate the criminal investigation into Powell? The probability of termination before June is 56%.
Polymarket has added a new event "When will the Trump administration terminate the Powell criminal investigation," with data showing a 39% probability of termination before April 30 and 56% before June 30. The market settles based on official information, and the investigation stems from Powell's testimony to Congress. Trump has stated that there are currently no plans to advance the investigation.
GateNews1h ago
Hey Anon Announces Launch of “Pandora” Prediction Market on Ethereum
Hey Anon launches Pandora, a decentralized AI-driven prediction market on Ethereum, empowering users to create transparent markets without central control. The platform features unique AI consensus mechanisms and aims to innovate the prediction market landscape.
CoinDesk1h ago
Messari: Polymarket's optimistic valuation expectation for 2028 will reach $111.2 billion.
BlockBeats news, on March 27, Messari senior analyst Austin Weiler conducted a valuation assessment of the prediction market Polymarket in his latest research report. The report states that after implementing the fee structure, three scenarios can be predicted for the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Polymarket by 2028 based on its current market share:
Optimistic expectation: $111.2 billion;
Neutral expectation: $24.2 billion;
Pessimistic expectation: $6.4 billion.
BlockBeatNews2h ago
Polymarket's probability of gold falling below $4,300 by the end of March has risen to 39%, up 21% in the past 24 hours.
On March 27, as gold prices declined, the probability of the event "Gold falling below $4,300 by the end of March" on Polymarket rose to 39%. International crude oil futures surged significantly due to uncertainties in US-Iran negotiations, while the three major U.S. stock indices fell. Meanwhile, spot gold dropped to $4,402.51, down 0.55% over 24 hours.
GateNews4h ago
