Arthur Hayes believes that the recent divergence between Bitcoin and the tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 is a warning sign of a credit crisis driven by AI, which could force central banks to resume large-scale money printing.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin acts as a “fiat liquidity alarm bell” because it is a freely traded asset that reacts quickly to credit supply fluctuations. He notes that when Bitcoin and tech stocks—two asset groups that used to be correlated—start to diverge, the market should consider the risks of credit destruction and USD deflation.
Hayes argues that AI replacing labor could trigger waves of job losses in the knowledge worker sector, leading to consumer and mortgage credit defaults. Based on his estimated model, if 20% of the 72 million knowledge workers in the US lose their jobs, the system could incur approximately $557 billion in credit losses, equivalent to wiping out about 13% of commercial banks’ equity.
He forecasts that regional banks will be the first to face pressure, with deposit withdrawals and a freezing credit market, forcing the Federal Reserve to resume money printing to stabilize the system. In such a scenario, the expected expansion of fiat credit could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
In addition to Bitcoin, Hayes’s company Maelstrom indicates it may allocate excess stablecoins into two altcoins, Zcash and Hyperliquid, if the Fed reverses its policy.
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