Bitcoin breaks $70,000 again! On-chain activity and ETFs cool down simultaneously, analysts warn "BTC struggles to rally"?

February 10 News: Bitcoin prices have weakened again, losing the critical support level of $70,000. At the time of writing, BTC is approximately $68,979, down 2% over the past 24 hours. From a multi-cycle perspective, the downward trend continues: a 12% decline over the past week, a 23% drop over the past month, and roughly a 30% decrease year-over-year. Since reaching a historical high of $126,080 in October 2025, the total decline has approached 45%, and market sentiment has clearly become more cautious.

This downward movement is not an instant crash but the result of sustained selling pressure combined with liquidity withdrawal. In the spot market, 24-hour trading volume has increased to about $52 billion, indicating frequent capital turnover. On the derivatives side, futures trading volume has risen to approximately $70 billion, while open interest has decreased simultaneously, suggesting that longs and shorts are accelerating their positions to close, with limited new leverage entering the market.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin is currently “difficult to push higher” because selling pressure is absorbing capital faster than it can positively influence the price. He compared this to 2024, where smaller capital inflows could amplify market capitalization, whereas in 2025, large capital inflows have failed to support the price, indicating that selling is weakening the multiplier effect. On-chain data also shows abnormal fluctuations; Amr Taha mentioned that recent large transfers of over 5,000 BTC into major custody channels signal distribution at high levels.

Institutional demand is also cooling down. The holdings of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to decline since peaking in October 2025, decreasing by about 90,000 BTC as of February 9, indicating that funds are withdrawing from passive allocations.

From a technical perspective, the $70,000 level has shifted from support to resistance. The price is constrained by the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The RSI hovers in oversold territory but lacks reversal signals. If the price cannot quickly recover above $71,000, short-term downside pressure remains; a break below $68,000 could lead the market to test lower levels.