The Cycle Is Wrapping Up, And Bitcoin Will Continue Bleeding Against Stocks, Analyst Says

• Analyst Benjamin Cowen expects Bitcoin to continue its downward trend, relative to equities.
• Analysts say that a rotation from gold and silver into crypto is unlikely in the immediate future.
• Meanwhile, Tom Lee is facing backlash for predicting that January would be a bullish month.

Bitcoin is currently struggling to find its footing as January comes to a close. While many investors hoped for massive returns as investors moved from precious metals into digital assets, that move has not happened yet.

Instead, the market is seeing a steady decline in value and recent data from CoinMarketCap shows that the top cryptocurrency is down nearly 8% over the last week.

Why Bitcoin Might Keep Falling

Benjamin Cowen recently shared an outlook for Bitcoin in the next few months on YouTube. He believes that Bitcoin will likely keep bleeding when compared to the stock market.

Benjamin Cowen says that Bitcoin might continue to underperform | source: YouTube

Many traders expected investors to sell their gold and silver to buy crypto. However, Cowen argues this is the wrong signal to follow because while Gold and silver recently hit new highs, crypto assets are losing ground.

Cowen said that this weakness aligns with historical market cycles and noted that Bitcoin often tops out in the fourth quarter of a post-election year.

If this analysis holds water, then we may have already entered a bear market. This trend started after the peak in October and he describes the current drop as a “top on apathy.”

This means prices are sliding because people are losing interest, rather than selling in a panic.

Comparing Gold Strength and Crypto Weakness

Precious metals are currently outperforming the crypto space by a great deal. Citi analysts even predicted that silver could reach $150 soon.

This surge in metals has left some crypto holders waiting for a “catch-up” rally, where they hope the Bitcoin price will follow the path of gold. However, historical data shows that there is usually a long delay between these moves.

🚨 CITI SEES SILVER AT $150

Citi raised its Silver target to $150 from $100, citing strong speculative demand and tightening physical supply outside the U.S. pic.twitter.com/qdGpsy7PSe

— Wall Street Gold (@WSBGold) January 27, 2026

Some analysts believe that the market is close to a turning point and Pav Hundal from Swyftx said that bottoms for Bitcoin usually lag behind gold by about 14 months.

If this pattern holds, a bottom could form within the next 40 days. Meanwhile, others, like Andre Dragosch from Bitwise Europe, are seeing this as a rare opportunity. He noted that Bitcoin is trading at a massive discount compared to gold and this setup could lead to an inflexion point later in the first quarter.

Tom Lee Faces Backlash

The recent market slump has put a spotlight on Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.

Lee is well known for his very optimistic forecasts, and he even previously told investors that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of January.

He also predicted Ethereum would hit $9,000 in the same timeframe. And now that January has only a few days left in it, those targets seem impossible to reach.

The “Prediction Industrial Complex” is out of control.

​Exhibit A: Tom Lee
Called for $180,000 $BTC and $7,000- $9,000 $ETH by end of January.
Reality with 48 hours left? $BTC ~$82k. $ETH ~$2.7k.
That’s not a miss. That’s a hallucination.

​Exhibit B: YoungHoon Kim
Claims a… pic.twitter.com/riIPkdCe5y

— Karol Kozicki (@k2__investment) January 30, 2026

Traders on social media have also shown their frustration with these “paid voices,” and have noted that these predictions sometimes push retail investors to buy at the wrong time.

One user on X pointed out that Lee has changed his timelines multiple times and these missed targets have fueled a lack of trust in celebrity analysts.

While Lee still believes a new all-time high is coming later this year, many traders are now ignoring his short-term calls.