Revealing the "10 Major Variables" Influencing Bitcoin's 2026 Trend! Charles Schwab: "'Halving Curse' Difficult to Shake Off"

Looking ahead to Bitcoin’s trend in 2026, Charles Schwab believes that the tug-of-war between overall economic trends and internal forces within the cryptocurrency market will continue. Despite significant improvements in liquidity conditions and the favorable performance of risk assets, the psychological pressure brought by the “halving cycle” remains hard to ignore and may limit Bitcoin’s upside potential this year. The Schwab Center for Financial Research’s Director of Crypto Asset Research and Strategy, Jim Ferraioli, states that Bitcoin’s price movement this year is actually influenced by “3 major long-term forces” and “7 short-term factors.” Jim Ferraioli believes that in the long run, the three main pillars supporting the currency’s value are “global M2 money supply,” “Bitcoin’s deflationary supply growth,” and “market adoption rate.” However, the short-term situation is more complex, requiring close attention to market risk sentiment, interest rate trends, the strength of the US dollar, seasonal effects, central bank liquidity excess, whale wallet movements, and potential financial contagion risks. Overall, at the start of 2026, several short-term indicators seem to be leaning toward a bullish trend. Jim Ferraioli observes that current credit spreads remain tight, and after experiencing a sharp correction at the end of 2025, the market has cleaned out many unstable speculative derivative positions, resulting in a relatively clean position. He points out, “If the stock market maintains a risk-on environment, it should be bullish for cryptocurrencies, which are considered ‘ultimate risk assets.’” Additionally, monetary policy is expected to shift from headwinds to tailwinds. He anticipates that interest rates and the US dollar will continue to weaken this year: “As quantitative tightening (QT) ends and the balance sheet expands again, abundant liquidity will support the price of cryptocurrencies.” However, investors should not get too optimistic too early, as significant headwinds still exist. Due to the market turmoil at the end of 2025, Jim Ferraioli warns that institutional adoption in the first half of this year may slow down. Nevertheless, if regulatory transparency improves, the situation could reverse: “If the U.S. Congress successfully passes the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, institutional investors will accelerate their entry and deployment.” Another variable that cannot be ignored is the shadow of the “halving cycle.” Jim Ferraioli points out that, based on historical experience, Bitcoin’s performance in the third year after a halving has often been poor. Since many investors still firmly believe in this cyclical narrative, even if fundamentals improve, psychological expectations may itself become a source of pressure. Data since 2017 shows that Bitcoin’s average annual gain from lows is about 70%. While Jim Ferraioli expects Bitcoin to still record positive returns in 2026, the gains may be far below the historical average. Finally, Jim Ferraioli highlights a noteworthy structural shift: the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets is undergoing a reshuffle.