Analysis: Non-farm payrolls and tariff rulings directly clash; Venezuela is just background noise.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that, according to the median forecast of economists, the US economy added 73,000 jobs last month, higher than the 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%. The ADP private sector employment report (“small non-farm”) will be released on Wednesday, two days earlier than the government data, but is generally not considered a reliable forward indicator. Additionally, the US Supreme Court may issue a ruling on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs on Friday— the same day as the December non-farm payrolls release— which could also impact the market.

“Trading in interest rates and credit instruments depends on US growth, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s next steps,” said Vincent Ahn, Portfolio Manager at Wisdom Fixed Income Management in Plano, Texas. “That’s why events like the employment report on Friday are far more significant for the Treasury market than Venezuela. Only when Venezuela’s events cause sustained oil price fluctuations, affecting gasoline prices and inflation, does it enter the market’s radar, and currently, the market does not see such a scenario.”

In other words, “Venezuela’s failure to influence the bond market is because it has not altered the inflation narrative,” Vincent added in an email to MarketWatch. (Jin10)