Since late December 2025, Bitcoin prices have generally fluctuated between $85,000 and $90,000. Previously, BTC reached a cyclical high of approximately $126,000 in early October, but subsequently faced sustained pressure due to global financial market uncertainties, decreased institutional trading activity during year-end holidays, and tax-related sell-offs. Meanwhile, capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs slowed, and market sentiment shifted to cautiousness.
However, after January 2026, signs of recovery in the Bitcoin market have gradually emerged. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a net inflow of about $335 million at the beginning of the year, reflecting a rebound in risk appetite among institutions and long-term investors. Against this backdrop, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat Global Advisors, reiterated his long-term bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 in the upcoming cycle.
Tom Lee pointed out that the core logic behind Bitcoin’s rise lies in the gradual maturation of market structure, increasing institutional participation, and a clearer regulatory environment. He believes that the widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs is transforming market attributes, shifting BTC from a highly volatile speculative asset to a mainstream allocation asset. Data shows that the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) under BlackRock had accumulated $24.7 billion in inflows by the end of 2025, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a total net inflow of approximately $31.77 billion throughout the year, becoming an important channel for institutional allocation.
On-chain data also indicates changes in the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders. Recent on-chain monitoring shows that some addresses have shifted from reducing holdings to accumulating, with a net increase of over 10,700 BTC in a single day, effectively alleviating selling pressure and providing price support. Meanwhile, companies like Strategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, maintaining stable demand even during market corrections.
Looking ahead, analysts generally focus on the key support level around $85,000. If BTC can stabilize above $90,000, it may confirm a new upward trend. At the same time, Federal Reserve interest rate policies, macro liquidity, and the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks will remain important variables influencing the 2026 market. With demand warming and capital structure improving, the $180,000 target price proposed by Tom Lee is gradually becoming a focal point of market discussion.
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