Fidelity Global Macro Research Director Jurien Timmer, who has been long-term optimistic about Bitcoin, has recently become more cautious. He warns that Bitcoin may have completed another 4-year cycle and is about to enter a prolonged correction period, with the possibility of a “Crypto winter” ahead.
Jurien Timmer pointed out that, based on historical experience, Bitcoin’s price movements have always followed repeating cyclical patterns. From historical laws and time structures, this current cycle “highly aligns” with previous bull and bear market transitions.
He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historical high of $125,000 in October this year, after approximately 145 months of upward trend, which fully matches the expected range of historical models.
Jurien Timmer stated that Bitcoin’s bear market (commonly called “Crypto winter”) usually lasts about a year. Therefore, he believes that after the recent halving cycle, 2026 could be Bitcoin’s “year of rest.” He said:
I remain long-term bullish on Bitcoin, but my concern is that, whether in terms of price or time, Bitcoin has likely completed another 4-year halving cycle.
Since past Bitcoin winters mostly lasted about a year, I think 2026 might be a temporary pause and a year of consolidation for Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, the key support zone is roughly between $65,000 and $75,000.
In contrast, Jurien Timmer’s outlook on gold is much more optimistic. He pointed out that since 2025, gold has performed strongly, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin’s relative weakness this year, and he does not expect a “Mean Reversion” (where asset prices return to long-term average levels) between the two in the short term.
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