After topping in the $120,000-$125,000 zone earlier in October 2025 and then sliding into the mid-$80,000s, Bitcoin is near $87,700 on the daily chart, and the setup looks like an easy excuse to lock in profits and start the year fresh.
That is where the history problem starts. Across the monthly return heat map, January posts an average gain of +9.76% and a median of +9.54%. February is also positive on average at +14.3%, while March’s median flips negative at -2.19%, showing that early-year strength exists, but it is uneven.
Yes, January is not always green for BTC. It delivered -32.1% in 2015, -28.1% in 2018 and -16.9% in 2022, so the warning is not “January always pumps,” it is “January often punishes sellers who expected an easy exit.”
The year-end mix adds context: November averages +36.6%, but December’s median is -2.68%, meaning many late-year exits happen into noise.
Why not?
The “do not sell into January” case is less about superstition and more about positioning. End-of-year selling often happens for practical reasons, and when that supply is done, price can rebound fast on lighter resistance.
In recent years, January printed +39.9% in 2023 and +29.6% in 2020. Even 2025 opened with a +9.54% January before latecomers spoiled the party.
None of this guarantees a rally. But if BTC enters January already down from its 2025 peak and sitting below the psychological $90,000 line, history says the bigger risk may be selling too late, not too early.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
BTC drops 0.69% over 15 minutes: Options expiration adjustments and risk aversion amplify short-term pressure
On March 26, 2026, from 17:45 to 18:00 (UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a -0.69% return within 15 minutes, with a price range of $68,385.8 to $68,956.2 USDT and an amplitude of 0.83%. Short-term volatility increased, market attention rapidly heightened, showing concentrated downward pressure.
The main driver of this movement was the approaching options expiration, with related position investors adjusting short-term holdings in response to the "maximum pain" zone ($75,000–$80,000), combined with the put/call ratio of options.
GateNews36m ago
Last Chance to Buy DeepSnitch AI Before March 31 as the Presale Nears Sellout: BTC Falls Below $70K as Saudi Arabia Reportedly Pushes to Extend Iran Conflict
Hot on the heels of Saudi Arabia pushing to extend the ongoing conflict with Iran, Bitcoin plummeted and broke below $70,000, having initially spiked to $71,000 following reports that talks between the US and Iranian authorities were going very well.
While BTC dips, a new crypto project has c
CaptainAltcoin1h ago
Analyst Holds Short Bias on BTC Below $76K
_ Analyst CryptoPatel stays short on Bitcoin, warning $76K is a lower high, not a buy zone, with sub-$50K as the next real target on the chart._
Bitcoin price ran into resistance. It got rejected. And one analyst says the market is still reading that as a short.
Crypto analyst CryptoPatel,
LiveBTCNews1h ago
Bitcoin ETF Accumulation Rebounds, Helping Support Price Momentum
Bitcoin’s exchange-traded fund story is getting a little healthier again. According to the CryptoQuant chart shared in the post, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are still in negative territory for 2026 on a cumulative basis, but the damage from February has been trimmed sharply.
The chart suggests ETFs
BlockChainReporter1h ago
Expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East have cooled, oil prices rebounded, and Bitcoin fell below $69,000.
Bitcoin drops below $69,000, with major cryptocurrencies falling 4% to 5%. The main reason is the fading optimism over Middle East tensions. U.S. tech stocks generally decline, and market trends are closely linked to macroeconomic factors. If the situation improves, risk assets may rebound.
BlockBeatNews1h ago
