XRP Today's News: ETF faces a downturn, breaking below double moving averages. Can the congressional bill push the price back to $2.5?

XRP spot ETF capital inflow remains weak, continuing for the fifth consecutive day since December 10, falling below $50 million. On that day, the net inflow was only $10.2 million. Institutional investors’ enthusiasm for XRP spot ETF has waned, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts, leading to a recent decline in risk sentiment. Progress on the “Market Structure Act” on Capitol Hill and Ripple’s application for a US banking license are the biggest hopes for a rebound.

ETF inflow breaks five consecutive lows: institutional enthusiasm waning signals caution

The weak capital inflow into XRP spot ETF is the core bearish factor in XRP today’s news. On Wednesday, December 10, the US XRP spot ETF market saw a net inflow of $10.2 million, slightly higher than the previous day’s $8.73 million. Recent capital flow suppression has dampened optimism about a surge in demand for XRP in the general consumer market. Last week, Vanguard changed its stance on cryptocurrencies, allowing its brokerage clients to invest in cryptocurrency spot ETFs. However, the inflow did not surge but weakened, indicating that investors remain cautious.

This subdued ETF inflow contrasts with the strong demand for Bitcoin ETFs. In comparison, demand for US Bitcoin spot ETFs has rebounded, given that XRP is a high-beta altcoin, which exposes XRP to greater price volatility. When mainstream funds prioritize Bitcoin, altcoins often face larger selling pressure. This divergence in capital flows indicates that institutional investors are currently more conservative, favoring the safest asset—Bitcoin—over high-volatility altcoins.

XRP plunged 28.9% in Q4, with weak institutional demand challenging market expectations of a bottoming rebound. From its July high of $3.66, XRP has declined 44.5%. While this decline is within normal range for a bull market correction, the duration—nearly five months—tests investors’ patience. If ETF inflows remain weak, it could hint that institutions are becoming cautious about XRP’s long-term value.

However, buying interest around the $2 level remains strong, suggesting a possible rebound toward the December 3 high of $2.22. The resilience at this support indicates long-term holders are not selling off en masse but continue accumulating at this level. On-chain data shows significant historical transaction records near $2, where holders tend to add to their positions or hold firmly during price retracements.

Market Structure Act: the biggest hope for XRP rebound

While Federal Reserve monetary policy and institutional demand are primary price drivers, legislation favorable to cryptocurrencies could have a greater impact. Progress on the “Market Structure Act” in Congress continues to influence market sentiment. Eleanor Terrett, a US crypto program host and reporter, stated: “It is expected that senators will hold a bipartisan meeting this morning to continue discussions on market structure negotiations. This afternoon, representatives from several leading industry firms will attend another market structure meeting at the White House.”

Most importantly, reports indicate that Democrats have accepted most of the Banking Committee’s “Regulatory Financial Act” (RFIA) text. However, disagreements remain between parties, with the Republican proposal submitted on December 4 retaining key principles, including token classification, illicit finance, ethical standards, and restrictions on stablecoin yields under the GENIUS Act. Despite some progress, the recent US government shutdown casts doubt on the bill’s passage in December. Ongoing negotiations suggest that full Senate voting may not happen until at least January 2026.

As background, XRP surged 14.69% after the US House of Representatives passed the “Market Structure Act” in July and sent it to the Senate for review, hitting a historic high of $3.66 on July 18. This historical case shows XRP’s price is highly sensitive to legislative progress related to crypto, and substantial advances could trigger a new surge.

Three key catalysts for short- to medium-term XRP rebound

Rising demand for XRP spot ETF: Daily inflows return above $50 million, indicating renewed institutional confidence

Market Structure Act gains bipartisan support: Senate passage could reignite July’s legislative catalyst effect

Ripple obtains US banking license: OCC approval will make Ripple a federally regulated financial institution

Technical outlook: Bulls vs. bears—$2 support determines direction

(Source: Trading View)

On December 11, XRP declined 0.34%, following a 3.14% drop the previous day, closing at $2.0343. The token underperformed the overall crypto market, which declined 0.07%. After two consecutive days of decline, the token broke below the 50- and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish bias. Although the technicals still lean bullish, the fundamentals are increasingly taking precedence over the technical signals.

Key technical levels to watch include: support at $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239; resistance at the 50-day moving average of $2.2424; the 200-day moving average at $2.4617; and resistance levels at $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Avoiding a breakdown below the psychological support at $2.0 will pave the way for a move toward the 50-day moving average. A sustained break above the 50-day moving average could allow bulls to challenge $2.35. Breaking through the 50-day MA signals a potential reversal of the short-term uptrend. Such a reversal would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) rally targeting the 200-day MA and $2.5. Falling below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

The Federal Reserve’s policy stance is likely to be a key driver of short- to medium-term price movements. US initial jobless claims increased from 192,000 in the week ending November 29 to 236,000 in the week ending December 6, boosting expectations for a Fed rate cut in March. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in March has risen from 42.2% to 49.6%. A cooling labor market and easing inflation will boost demand for risk assets like XRP.