Trading moment: The FOMC decision is imminent, Bitcoin is at $91,500 as a key support, and Ethereum is aiming for the $3,500 mark

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Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market observation

In a complex macroeconomic environment, the Fed’s policy decision this week has become the focus of the market. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with a probability of 88.6% to 95%, but Bank of America and other institutions believe that given the structural cooling of the labor market with “low hiring, low turnover, and rising layoffs”, the Fed may send a “hawkish rate cut” signal, that is, cut interest rates but hint at the possibility of future policy tightening. This uncertainty has led to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, while Goldman Sachs has warned of early signs of a recession through indicators such as Las Vegas consumption data.

In the commodity market, spot silver performed well, breaking through $60 per ounce for the first time to hit a record high, with an increase of more than 100% during the year, significantly outperforming gold, and the gold-silver ratio fell to its lowest level since 2021. However, Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, predicts a potential reversal of this trend, believing that gold’s rally as a safe-haven asset will recede while risk assets like Bitcoin will regain activity. Meanwhile, tech giant SpaceX is planning its largest IPO in history, with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion, and ARK predicts its value to reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, mainly driven by Starlink’s business. Looking ahead, the market’s dependence on macroeconomic data has increased, and Fed Chairman Powell’s statement will provide important guidance for policy direction in 2026.

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery to a three-week high of $94,625 has sparked FOMO in the market, but analysts have mixed opinions. Data from Santiment shows a surge in bullish calls on social media, but such sentiment spikes are often inverse indicators. Investor “NoLimit” believes that the rally is “pure manipulation” rather than organic market behavior. From a technical analysis perspective, many analysts have given key prices, with Ali warning that Bitcoin has historically faced downward pressure before and after the FOMC meeting, and although it may rebound to $100,000, there is still a risk of backtesting $80,000; AlphaBTC adheres to the 97-98k target, but emphasizes the need to hold 91.5k; Man of Bitcoin points out that the price has touched the upper band of the rising wedge, and a breakout may hit $96,962. Michaël van de Poppe even pointed out that the divergence in the performance of Bitcoin and Nasdaq indicates that it has huge room to catch up and is expected to return to the $110,000 to $115,000 range.

However, bearish voices are also present, with analyst Astronomer shorting at the 92.7k level and causing Bitcoin to pull back in 6 out of 7 FOMC meetings in history. Standard Chartered Bank lowered its Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 from $200,000 to $100,000, citing slowing ETF inflows. On the other hand, on-chain data provides a deeper perspective, Murphy pointed out through the BTC Profit Supply Percentage (PSIP) model analysis that PSIP has recently rebounded to 67.7%, but still fluctuates in the key range of 65%-70%, if PSIP falls below 50%, a bear market bottom may occur, and the current estimate of this corresponding level is $62,000. Cathie Wood believes that the continued entry of institutions is reducing Bitcoin’s volatility and may prevent its price from plummeting historically.

Ethereum has been relatively strong, with the price rebounding to a three-week high of nearly $3,400, and according to analyst Mercury, Ethereum has broken through local resistance and reclaimed the high timeframe trendline, becoming the “clear frontrunner” in the current market. Analyst Man of Bitcoin noted that ETH has micro support at $3,201 and may continue to test the $3,417 to $3,554 area. IncomeSharks sees $3,500 as the “final hurdle” for Ethereum to confirm a bull market. Negentropic, co-founder of Glassnode, believes that Ethereum is “quietly brewing” the next breakout and has regained its position above the 50-day moving average, with momentum continuing to rise. Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, also said that Ethereum is far undervalued in the macro context of interest rate cut expectations and financial on-chain trends.

In terms of altcoins, the meme coin pippin came out of another market, with a price hitting a record high, with a market capitalization of more than $330 million, a single-day increase of up to 90%. In addition, the new token HumidiFi (WET) has performed well after being listed on multiple exchanges such as OKX, with its price once surpassing $0.27, up more than 290% from its public price of $0.069.

2. Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on 10 December)

(Source: GMGN, CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $92,591 (-1.05% year-to-date), with a daily spot trading volume of $52.73 billion
• Ethereum: $3,324 (-0.2% year-to-date), with a daily spot trading volume of $34.31 billion
• Fear of Greed Index: 25 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 58.46%, ETH 12.2%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, G
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.79% / 49.21%
• Sector up: The AI sector led the way by more than 5.9%, and the Meme sector rose 5.3%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 95,310 people around the world were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$380 million, including US$153 million in BTC, US$117 million in ETH, and US$13.6 million in SOL

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3. ETF flow (as of December 9)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$152 million, with Fidelity FBTC leading the way with a net inflow of $199 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$178 million, with Fidelity FETH leading the way with a net inflow of $51.4727 million
• Solana ETF: +$16.54 million
• XRP ETF: +$8.73 million

4. Today’s Forward-Looking

• Binance will delist multiple USDT-M perpetual contracts such as SKATEUSDT and REIUSDT on December 10
• Binance Alpha will list the Talus Network (US)
• U.S. District Court Judge Paul Engelmayer will pronounce Do Kwon’s sentencing on December 11
• US Fed interest rate decision ( upper limit ): 4% previously, 3.75% expected (12 03:00 on December 11)
• Fed Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference (12 03:30 on March 11)
• Microsoft CEO Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12 and meet with government officials

The top 100 coins by market capitalization today were the biggest gainers: MemeCore rose 13.2%, ASI Alliance rose 9.7%, Pudgy Penguins rose 9.6%, Ultima rose 9.3%, and Cardano rose 8.1%.

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5. Hot news

• Changpeng Zhao: The crypto market may enter a “super cycle”, and Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” may no longer apply
• A whale once again withdrew 13.44 million ASTER from Binance, after selling at a high level and losing $34.5 million
• Strive launches $500 million SATA stock ATM financing plan, with a portion of the net proceeds going to buy Bitcoin
• Bitcoin treasury company Twenty One shares fall 20% after merging with Cantor Equity
• “1011 Insider Whale” increased his position in ETH long orders by more than 10,000 in the early morning, and his current position is about $17.4 million
• Octra will conduct a $20 million public token sale on Sonar on December 18 at a valuation of $200 million
• Bitwise Top 10 Crypto Index Funds are officially listed as ETFs on NYSE Arca
• CoinGecko: Listed companies hold more than 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, of which Strategy accounts for 3%
• HASHKEY disclosed IPO details: It plans to raise up to HK$1.67 billion, and is expected to be listed for trading on December 17